99 in the BB - fold the turn?

pokerstudAA · #1 04-30-2005, 06:29 PM

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Lets get some $ in when 99's are ahead of all this limped garbage. Limpers are all pretty loose and the game is going good. They probably have low pairs low suited connectors or big unsuited high cards. How is the raise?
If I dont hit a 9 I am probably done anyway.

Flop: (14 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO 3-bets, Button caps, SB calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

All undercards. Good chance my nines are good? I raise to protect my 99 in a big pot. Folding overcard hands like QJ, AJ or TJ would be nice. Can I fold when it is capped back to me?

Turn: (15 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets, Button raises, SB calls, Hero folds, CO 3-bets, Button caps, SB calls, CO calls.

Looking for a gut shot or set. 6 outs. Fold it for 2 bets? I was getting just the right odds to call but had a good feeling it was going to get three bet and capped if I called. Putting $40 in did not sound good to me. Was folding good knowing it would cost me $40?

If I am playing for $40 should I lead the turn or is that just stupid?

River: (27 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, CO calls, Button calls.

Final Pot: 30 BB

Comments?

pokerstudAA · #2 05-01-2005, 01:06 AM

Well I guess I will see if I can figure it out then....

Must throw in 2 BB to call the turn with a good chance of throwing in 3 or 4 the way this hand wasa playing out. There are 15 BB in to start the turn.

If 4 of us go for two bets each on the turn. I am getting 15+8 = 23:2 odds. I have 6 outs. Most of which I think make me the winning hand.

If 4 of us go for 4 bets on the turn I am getting 15+12 = 27:4 odds. About 7:1. Assuming all my 6 outs are good- in tis siutation they appear to be. I need 6.7:1 odds to call with 6 outs. Correct? There is some minor chance I am beat by a better straight but again I think that risk here is low.

Should I call this cap without question? Should I consider betting myself? Is this how to look at the odds in this situation?

Mabye the flop call needs a better look? 2 SB....

Nick C · #3 05-01-2005, 01:52 AM

There's so much action on the flop that I'm thinking you must be behind, especially since you say your opponents are loose-passive. However, you do have two set outs and a backdoor straight. It's a one-card backdoor straight, though, and there's some chance that both your backdoor straight and set outs are tainted (if, for instance, SB by some chance has JT). I think I would have peeled one off, hoping everyone just had 87 or something. Anyway, you are getting an immediate 13:1 on your call and a probable 14:1. You're probably up against at least one set, but I think the backdoor straight is enough to make the call okay, even so.

The turn is difficult. By the time the action gets back to you, I'm thinking CO and Button most likely both have sets. That's not enough to make you fold, if SB isn't cutting into your outs with something like 98 or T9. But it's hard to say what he has, and maybe we shouldn't be too greatly concerned about our outs being tainted. If you do have 6 outs, you shouldn't fold even if you knew it was going to get 3-bet and capped behind you (which you don't know for certain, though it does seem highly likely), particularly once we factor in the bets you may gain on the river if you catch.

Ugh. I'm not sure what I'd do. There's a good chance I'd call, hoping my outs were clean and CO would slow down to Button's turn raise. I do know that if I did fold and then CO just called, I'd regret the fold.

The river is just weird. Did SB have AA or something? A8? Why are CO and Button just calling, all of a sudden? I guess maybe they didn't have sets after all. Or maybe they both feared AA. Maybe CO was finally convinced his 77 likely wasn't good against Button's 88, and Button by now had stopped liking his 22 so much. I really don't know.

imported_stealthcow · #4 05-01-2005, 01:58 AM

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All undercards. Good chance my nines are good? I raise to protect my 99 in a big pot. Folding overcard hands like QJ, AJ or TJ would be nice. Can I fold when it is capped back to me?

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yea, you can fold when it gets back to you. i know you're "beating the board" but 88 77 and 22 all would've limped in this game. there are 3 other raisers in the hand, and i think it would be very optimistic to think your 99 is best.

preflop play is also excellent. it must've been one great table, and i would consider raising with 99 in the bb if it was 5 players.

the turn play is also fine. at first i thought you should lead and fold to action if it keeps coming, but on second thought, leading is pointless. you're in a 4 way pot that was limped by all preflop and now was capped 4 ways, with each player raising on the flop (it would be better if there were only 2 raisers and 2 stuck in the middle)

stealthcow-

pokerstudAA · #5 05-01-2005, 02:12 AM

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Maybe CO was finally convinced his 77 likely wasn't good against Button's 88, and Button by now had stopped liking his 22 so much. I really don't know.

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BINGO! - nice one. 88 and 77 both were out there. Oh if only I rivered them... So I am thinking that the flop call might have been bad? 2 SB: getting about 13:1 or so.

Once the flop call mistake was made the turn call was justified? How can I play this to get a cheaper turn card? The overpair raise seems justified.

Azhrarn · #6 05-01-2005, 02:19 AM

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Maybe CO was finally convinced his 77 likely wasn't good against Button's 88

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I can say with authority this is exactly what the CO was thinking.

Nick C · #7 05-01-2005, 02:26 AM

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88 and 77 both were out there. Oh if only I rivered them... So I am thinking that the flop call might have been bad? 2 SB: getting about 13:1 or so.

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I'm not sure. Your backdoor straight is worth something. It may push the flop to a call.

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Once the flop call mistake was made the turn call was justified?

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Again, I don't know. The gutshot does help, though. You have the odds to call if none of your outs are tainted, but there is some chance that they are tainted by SB's hand.

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How can I play this to get a cheaper turn card? The overpair raise seems justified.

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If 88 and 77 are both out there, I don't think there's any way you're getting cheap cards. (The river call with 88 baffles me, unless it was SB who held 88 and he decided to stop slowplaying.)

Anyway, your flop raise is good. In fact, I think just calling would be bad.

pokerstudAA · #8 05-01-2005, 02:33 AM

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Your backdoor straight is worth something. It may push the flop to a call.

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I gave some credit to the back door straight. I also thought hitting the 9 ould be worth more than a few extra bets here. After the flop raise - I figured a call was not so bad. I was already in this far. Unlikey J10s came along to the river to hit a gut shot

I really think all 6 outs would be clean on the river.

Nick C · #9 05-01-2005, 02:43 AM

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I gave some credit to the back door straight. I also thought hitting the 9 would be worth more than a few extra bets here. After the flop raise - I figured a call was not so bad.

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You're right. We should take implied odds for the set outs into account. I'm thinking that once we factor those in along with the backdoor straight, a call of two more on the flop is good.

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I was already in this far. Unlikey J10s came along to the river to hit a gut shot

I really think all 6 outs would be clean on the river.

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I agree that they probably are, which is why I think it may be okay to keep calling and see the river.

If SB has a hand like T9 or 98, though, then that's really unfortuante.

Nick C · #10 05-01-2005, 03:03 AM

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Maybe CO was finally convinced his 77 likely wasn't good against Button's 88

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I can say with authority this is exactly what the CO was thinking.

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SB's river bet must've been pretty annoying, then.