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#1
04-28-2005, 02:46 PM
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EV of bubble fold
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A friend and I had this debate over a hand in a sit and go--on the surface the decision seems trivially easy, but upon retrospect I'm not so sure. $200 Sit'n go on Stars, 4 players left, blinds 200/400 Ante 25, standard prize amounts for 1,2,3. Player1 (t180) Villain (t8785) SB Hero (t3190) BB dealt AA Player4(t1345) Player 4 fold, Player 1 fold, Villain raises to 4400. What would be the EV of a fold versus a call in a situation like this. 
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#2
04-28-2005, 03:32 PM
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Re: EV of bubble fold
According to the independent chip model, if you fold you place 1st-4th with probabilities .207, .466, .296, .032. That is worth 0.302 of the prize pool.
If you call an win, you place 1st-4th with probabilities .473, .393, .127, .007. That is worth 0.380 of the prize pool. If these are accurate, you should call if you win more than 79.6% of the time (ignoring ties), which should be true with AA. It is a close decision, though.
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