Induce a bluff or take the pot down now??

[tightmaniac]

My thoughts are inspired by a hand I had earlier today but it makes me wonder in general about this hypothetical situation. If I put the BB exactly on 2 overcards say K8 no clubs and say he will always bluff any river card and always fold to a turn raise, is it better for me to just call down or should I raise and take the pot down on the turn immediately??

Also does this change if he has K4?


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero ????

[Loci]

If you bet out here, and he comes over the top, you have a -EV to call. Check it down. If he always bets, like you say, then you can call some med bets. If he overbets, you can win a few and still not make up for when you actually lose it to him. If he checks behind, then you show down and take what's there, but at least you're not throwing good money after bad.
also- while it's admirable to mentally place your opponent on a hand, being so specific as to guess a random K/8 is unrealistic. If you knew what his hand was, the game would be much easier.

[mannika]

Given your assumptions, you should raise the turn.
Villain will improve to the best hand 6/44 of the time.

If you pick up the pot now, you are gaining 5.16BB. However, if you wait until the river, you will still have the best hand 38/44 of the time, at which point you will win 6.16BB, but when Villain improves, you will have cost yourself an additional 2 BB.

Therefore, either take 5.16BB now, or wait to get:
(38/44)6.16BB-(6/44)2BB = 5.05BB.

Therefore, you should raise right now to maximize your EV.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Given your assumptions, you should raise the turn.
Villain will improve to the best hand 6/44 of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
K8 has 9 outs, since another 9 will counterfeit the 55.

Whether that changes anything depends on whether Villain will call a raise on the river after a 9 comes.

[mannika]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Given your assumptions, you should raise the turn.
Villain will improve to the best hand 6/44 of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
K8 has 9 outs, since another 9 will counterfeit the 55.

Whether that changes anything depends on whether Villain will call a raise on the river after a 9 comes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good catch, I was never good at finding those hidden outs. Regardless, this would just make an even stronger case for raising the turn immediately.

[Hojglad]

[ QUOTE ]
Given your assumptions, you should raise the turn.
Villain will improve to the best hand 6/44 of the time.

If you pick up the pot now, you are gaining 5.16BB. However, if you wait until the river, you will still have the best hand 38/44 of the time, at which point you will win 6.16BB, but when Villain improves, you will have cost yourself an additional 2 BB.

Therefore, either take 5.16BB now, or wait to get:
(38/44)6.16BB-(6/44)2BB = 5.05BB.

Therefore, you should raise right now to maximize your EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

You also don't take into account the extra BB or two that you will win should you actually win the pot on the river.