Bank roll

[PBaek]

Hi everyone,

Just want to warn people about believing that a 30 buy in bank roll for SNGs is safe.

I am (usually) a 15% ROI player at the $30 level. In my last 400 "the button" has been turned on insanely. This coincided with my new habit of cashing in $100 each day after I have played. Im thinking this is no coincidence [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Ok, maybe it is.

Anyway, I am down no less than 50 buyins and I feel like [censored]. Having a pretty sytematic approach to the game I have not altered my play, but you know the story: Anything you have they have better or hit miracle outs to catch up...

Its not that it feels like its everytime. It IS every bloody time.

I am going to move down a limit until I feel I have a shot at winning anything again.

Damn that button!!

Peter.

[Big Limpin']

citanul will rip you for this...fair warning

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
citanul will rip you for this...fair warning

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a test of the Citanul warning system. If this were really Citanul, your post would be up in flames right now. Repeat this is only a test.

[hummusx]

Hey, what's your avatar from? For some reason I want to bust out laughing when I look at it.

[Sam T.]

Without getting into the conspiracy aspects of your post, let's think about it.

You (effectively) lost 50 tournaments in a row, right? Remember that with a 33% ITM (which, I gather, is pretty good), you were going to lose 33 of these anyway. So there are only 17 losses that "shouldn't" have happened.

Now, if you busted out of every one of these seventeen tournaments on hands when you were ahead when the money went in, it would be remarkable indeed. And very unlikely. It is far more likely that you had some bad luck, pushing your AJo into KK, etc. You were unlucky, but c'mon, you had AJ! Add to this the usual odds-against beats, when his AJ flops an ace to your cowboys, and then consider the truly awful suckouts It doesn't take long to get to 17 losses.

And since we're talking about seventeen games (indeed, seventeen hands) it is impossible for you to come to any useful conclusions from a 50 buy-in drop.

I've never had this happen, so I can't imagine the feeling, but keep your chin up, read TOP a few times, and come back confident.

And if that doesn't work, buy a pattern map, and get a new screen name. That fools the button guys 72% of the time.

Sam

[Sam T.]

It is pretty awesome. Right click on it, and select properties. That'll give you the link.

Sam

[Paul2432]

If you regularly withdrawl, no bankroll is large enough.

Consider flipping a fair coin. If you do this long enough you will eventually have streaks of 10, 50 even 100 consecutive tails. Similarly, you will encounter arbitrarily long losing streaks in poker.

The reason a certain bankroll protects you against going broke is that the bankroll grows. As time passes, you have built up a sufficient bankroll to handle the inevitable losing streaks.

The classic formula for risk of ruin is:

Ror = e ^ (-2 x WR x BR / SD^2)

By withdrawing your winnings, your win rate (WR) is effectively zero. Plugging WR=0 into the above gives a RoR of 100%.

Paul

[Big Limpin']

The avatar is a cut from a music video.
DJ Lethal - We Know Something You Dont Know.
It's a real dope video, everyone in animal get-up spitting verses and breakdancing, if you want to check it, heres a link
If you're not a hiphop fan, you'll still enjoy it for the sheer comedic value of seeing Disney-esque characters breakdance.

PS - I just checked the site, and for some rason its loading SUPER slow today. Possibly its just me (?), but if you check it, and have the same problem, the vid will load, just budget 5 minutes or so. worth the wait.

[valenzuela]

I hope u were exagerrating.

[sofere]

Well obviously if you always withdraw all of your winnings you're eventually gonna have a losing streak up to your entire bankroll. Therefore your ROR is 100%. Common sense.