Bonanza Hand` (What are the Odds)

[six_4off]

I was playing at my home game last night and I saw insanity. We play .25 and .50 blinds pot limit game. The game is also pretty weak so we'll call the players involved, Nemo and Flounder.

Flounder opens in MP w/ a pot sized raise. (Standard Raise.)
Folds to Nemo who calls.

2 players to the flop

Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Flounder bets out for a pot sized bet, Nemo calls.

Turn comes 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Flounder pushes his last 7 dollars in the pot.

Nemo thinks and counts chips for about 5-10 secs and calls.

Flounder says "If you take this pot I'll burn your house down!" as he flips 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

And Holy Kerosene Batman! Nemo shows A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I was just kinda curious as to what the odds of this happening are. Can anyone help. I also have a bet w/ Nemo. I said that 2 quads were more rare than a Royal Flush, He disagreed. Any thoughts??

[LetYouDown]

Assuming the cards are already dealt and we have A-A vs. 9-9. There are 48 cards left in the deck. Enumerated over 5 cards (the board), there are 48 C 5 possible combinations, or 1712304 combinations of flop/turn river. Obviously A-A-9-9 are four of the cards involved here, with another card (we now know 8, so there are 44 cards that could come that are irrelevant). So there are 44 combinations, based on what we know, that contain A-A-9-9 on board. 44/1712304 = 1/38916. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[six_4off]

Hell i dunno if you are wrong! Thats why i posted this. Thank you for that input, it is well appreciated!

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