Bubble theory

[hummusx]

Based on responses to another thread that's running, I'm wondering if my thinking about bubble play is correct or not. I wanted to start a new thread on this so we could disconnect from real circumstances and talk in more general terms.

4 players left at the party 22 or 33 level. I'm the second lowest stack with 1000. The other low stack has 800, and the rest are split between the two remaining players. Blinds are 300. I have one of A8-A5.

a) UTG=3100, me=1000, SB=3100, BB=800

UTG folds, and I ?

b) UTG=800, me=1000, SB=3100, BB=3100

UTG folds and I ?

c) UTG=3100, me=1000, SB=800, BB=3100

UTG folds and I ?

My answer in all 3 cases is 'push'. I'm hoping at least I have agreement on that point. I guess the possibly more interesting question is, in what order of 'easiness' do these pushes fall? In other words, which am I least excited about? I was thinking that I'd be happiest to push in 'c', followed by 'b', and least happy pushing in 'a'. What I was hearing in the other thread was maybe the opposite, that 'a' was the most no-brainer push here, I guess because of the value of being called by a worse hand?

As a second set of questions, how do answers to a,b,c change for any two instead of Ax? And how do the relative rankings of pushing (if any) change?

[J-Lo]

a.) push
b.) fold <-- i do not like pushing into big stacks w/ a 60% advantage.
c.) push

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
b.) fold <-- i do not like pushing into big stacks w/ a 60% advantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

At 3.5x BB do you think you really have a choice but to open push?

[hummusx]

I can understand not liking to push into two big stacks, but in 2 hands you are going to lose your FE. Are you planning to have a better hand by then?

[syka16]

a, push top 50
b, push 44+, A7o, A5s,KQs
c, add A2s, KQo, KTs+

[syka16]

To get an idea of how important stack sizes are on the bubble: it's usually more profitable to push KT with the short stack in the SB than it is to push AT with him UTG.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
To get an idea of how important stack sizes are on the bubble: it's usually more profitable to push KT with the short stack in the SB than it is to push AT with him UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

great point.

c is an easy push...SB has a super tight range here. a

a is arguably tougher than b...I think SS will call with a lot here if he's smart. he will have 450 after posting sb and will basically have to win a SD and still not be guaranteed jack.

b is a good push bc SB may fear that calling will get an over the top from BB so he will be tight.

my order from easiest to hardest: c, b, a

[beeyjay]

B is the hardest but is still a push.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
B is the hardest but is still a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

arguably you're right. What's your range with shortstack in BB when button pushes in a?


Now what's your range with 3100 in BB?

my questions ignore the SB in these examples, so that is misleading. but im curious...i think you have less FE, ironically, in a.

[Degen]

Dunno if you realize this but the big stacks are supposed to call you from the BB w/ any two cards.

2:1 in the pot and you're all in and its less than 1/3rd of your stack.



Andre