A-2 "busted" consistently ... what are the odds?

My frustration is so high right now, I have to post this.

Each of my last 20 A-2-X-X on Party have been "busted". By "busted", I mean either (a) one or zero low cards on the flop, or (b) counterfeit flop. These have included several a-2-3-x. (While I might have been able to stay in after the flop due to a check around on one or two occasions, none of these hands proved to be a winner. 0 for 20.)

What are the odds? 20 in a row? Incredible.

make it 21

[shawn_p]

"That's poker. I'm tired of saying it, but that's poker."

T.J. Clotier [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Keep your chin up man. Each time your ace duece gets "busted" means the deck is getting that much hotter for you in the future.

[GooperMC]

Depending on your other 2 cards A2XX will flop a nut low or a nut low draw between 36% (for A2 with 2 low cards) and 61% (for A234). If we assume that you average 40% then the probability of missing twenty times in a row would be the .6^20 or very damn small (about 3/1000 of a percent).

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Keep your chin up man. Each time your ace duece gets "busted" means the deck is getting that much hotter for you in the future.

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The sentiment is good however the logic is bad. I agree that the only remedy for this ailment is to keep your chin up by knowing that statistically this can’t last forever, however the deck is not getting any hotter. Each hand is an independent event; 1 hand does not effect another so he could miss his A2’s 1 million more times and he would still have the same probability on his 1 million and 1 hand. When we are getting unlucky it is always nice to think that the game owes us something but from a probably standpoint it doesn’t.

If it makes you feel better in the last 500 hands have won 9% of the flops that I have seen. I know that doesn’t help your problem but it may make you feel a little better to laugh at me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks for responding. I'm glad this wasn't taken as a bitch and moan/bad beat that happens to everyone type thing. I really think this run has been truly incredible. 21 in a row, and still counting.

[toots]

Hey, I just had the same experience over the weekend with Party. Just about every A2xx, just about every A23x, and even one AA23(!) got busted.

Maybe we should start a topic about how Party is rigged.

Oh yeah:

Big [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

That may just be poker, but it ain't gonna buy me a new monitor...

And meanwhile schlubs are scooping with their 5-6-10-j. Offsuit.

[Beavis68]

I know, I am bonus clearing on party right now, down 17 on table and even on the other after one our of play, lost to JT66 that chased a J high flush draw, and K752 that hit a runner runner boat.

I have tracked these players on party, and I am conviced that there IS a schooling factor to O8b. I also think that A2xx hands suck and that I am too agressive on these tables.

I used to beat these tables for about 5BB/100. Not sure what happened, the players sure didnt get any better.

[TGoldman]

Be happy to only get counterfeited on the flop. For me, those cards usually like to wait until at least the turn to counterfeit my lows. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[toots]

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And meanwhile schlubs are scooping with their 5-6-10-j. Offsuit.

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Well, there is the upside. "Sat down" at an O/8 table the other night. Posted, and managed to check through to the flop with a pretty sorry hand. Something like 457J rainbow. Miracle of miracles, I ended up flopping a wheel.

So, I jammed the crap out of it, in hopes I'd also catch a 7 high straight. I didn't, but I ended up getting the low pot, with the others splitting the high pot.

The table captain probably didn't notice that I was only in the hand because I sat down and posted, so he proceeds to go on tilt over my hideous play.

I went on to have a thoroughly lousy losing session from there, but it was a hoot to watch the table captain ranting and raging about the fish (me).