$20+2 : QQ -> UTG, a hand that always perplexes me....

[octaveshift]

$20+2. Thought?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter

Hero (t1610)
UTG+1 (t770)
MP1 (t385)
MP2 (t1555)
CO (t545)
Button (t495)
SB (t1930)
BB (t710)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t125</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, SB calls t110, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t280) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t150</font>, Hero ????????????

[jah0550]

I would bet that the villian had AJ or J10(not likely JQ, because you already have two Qs). If he had a king, why wouldn't he check it to you. In this situation, I'd push. Like to see what others have to say.

[hummusx]

I think pushing is a little extreme. For me, I'm still thinking I have the best hand. If you push, you are surely going to be called only by a K or better. I'd raise it a little more than the minimum, say to 350 or 375. If he has the K, he's probably going to come back over the top and you can just fold. If he has a J he'll probably call and shut down at which point I would check behind him on the turn and then call the river bet or bet for value if he checks again. If he has nothing and was just stabbing at the pot, he'll fold to the raise.

I wouldn't be that surprised if he was just firing a bet out with nothing, since this is one of those flops that's usually won by the first bettor.

[ripped]

Raise. If he had a K he would/should checkraise. The bet is either a J a bluff or a draw (AT, 4flush) I cant see you behind here. If they move in you can toss the hand away. I would raise the minimum.

[Aces 'n Eights]

I'm guessing with a BB of just 30, that this is early in the tourney and you probably don't have much of a read on his style of play yet. This is the type of flop where many times the first to bet takes it down. The only hands that beat you right now are AA, JJ or Kx. You need to see what he has. I would re-raise it to about 400-450. With a straight draw AND a flush draw out there, if he does have a K, I'll wager he comes over the top of you again and you can now fold (and you'll still have plenty of chips). With anything else he may be afraid YOU have a K and depending on the turn card, shut down completely.

A8

[Sam T.]

FWIW, I would have raised less pre-flop. Is 4BB your standard?

[ QUOTE ]
I think pushing is a little extreme. For me, I'm still thinking I have the best hand. If you push, you are surely going to be called only by a K or better. I'd raise it a little more than the minimum, say to 350 or 375. If he has the K, he's probably going to come back over the top and you can just fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your point of view, and perhaps I'm seeing monsters, but this line is not going to fold out the villain. If Hero min-raises, the villain would have to call just t150 into a pot now worth t575. If he's on any kind of draw, he's going to call, and there are a lot of cards Hero will hate: any Ace, [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or another J could all be bad news.

And this will contradict what I said above, but I actually might consider a call here. If the villain doesn't have a K, the call is going to make him very nervous. Hero's got a very healthy stack, so he can afford to let this hand play out a bit longer. See what the turn brings, and how much the villain likes his his hand.

My two cents,

Sam

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]
And this will contradict what I said above, but I actually might consider a call here. If the villain doesn't have a K, the call is going to make him very nervous. Hero's got a very healthy stack, so he can afford to let this hand play out a bit longer. See what the turn brings, and how much the villain likes his his hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with just calling is that you are not gaining any information. You've put more money in the pot but you have no idea where you are at. Now if any of the cards you listed come and he bets, you pretty much have to fold. You could still very well be folding the best hand. I think it's extremely unlikely that if you try to check this down you are going to get to a show down.

If you raise to 375, villain is getting less than 4:1 on his flush draw and he's worse than 5.5:1 to make it on the next card. So if he does call with the draw he's making a mistake.

All this aside, I really think that at the low-mid buyins on PP, most of the time you are going to see a fold to your raise.

[octaveshift]

Your responses are EXACTLY why I don't slowplay trips.

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

If I had AK here, I'd definitely bet the flop, and hope the villain put me on JJ or a bluff. Then, I'd promptly push when raised.

I am glad to see the hand is not cut-and-dry, and fostering discussion.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I would have raised less pre-flop. Is 4BB your standard?

[/ QUOTE ]

4x is the median. I usually switch between 3x, 4x, and in some cases, for deception, 5x.

[go fish]

I may be totally off here, but UTG, if I'm going to play, I typically raise my average or more. I see nothing wrong with 4x-6x here.