$55 bubble hand

[Scuba Chuck]

<font color="blue"> For all those to see. You can either flame me, or believe that I really do fold in these situations. Anyone disagree with this fold? </font>

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

Button (t4652)
SB (t990)
Hero (t2425)
UTG (t1933)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1050</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t1500

[valenzuela]

I like the fold.

[nokona13]

Hmmm... I don't generally assume everyone plays the big stack "correctly" on the button, so I won't say, "he's got any two, you crush that, push". But his range has got to be pretty wide here, you have 3XBB left and are the short stack by 2X. Unless you REALLY think button won't steal again next hand and next hand's blinds aren't going to call your 3xBB steal this time or next, I don't see any better way to get yourself back in the running for 1st/2nd than to call, assuming either a coin flip where you're slight favorite or your dominating. Unless big stack has acquired his stack by being ultra-uber-tight and has flopped trip kings three times and been pushed into or something, I would be calling here...

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm... I don't generally assume everyone plays the big stack "correctly" on the button, so I won't say, "he's got any two, you crush that, push". But his range has got to be pretty wide here, you have 3XBB left and are the short stack by 2X.

[/ QUOTE ]

This would be a super-obvious call if Scuba were the short stack, but he's not - he's the second biggest stack at the table, with twice the short stack even after posting the BB.

I don't think this is a terrible fold. I would probably push here most of the time, particularly if I thought I had any chance of folding the big stack, but I don't think folding will be very wrong often.

[vinyard]

Take this with a grain of salt as I recently had to move (temporarily) back down to the 33s from the 55s. I look at that raise from the BS and think he's likely a bad big stack player. I suspect, with that bet, he wants to knock out the little stack and doesn't want to see a re-raise all-in from you and possibly the other player.

You have a premium hand here in TT and I think you are likely a significant favorite against hands he is likely making this bet with (55+, Axs, K7+, any two broadways.) I push and feel queasy about it

[viennagreen]

so what does the ICM say about this Scuba? what range of hands would you enter for him? i would say, any ace, any pair, KQ-KT, QJ-QT.

i don't use the ICM, though i should probably think about buying eastbay's program, so i'm interested.... my gut reaction is that you are at the very least a coinflip and most likely ahead by way more than that.... i wouldn't fold this.

[Scuba Chuck]

Your range of hands seems seriously loose here. I'm willing to go with A8+ (not any A). 55+, and I'll go with your broadway cards.

I'll do the math, and see what the results are.

Edit: One last assumption we need to agree on. What is the probability villain calls my allin?

[GoldenHorde]

Big stack on the bubble SB has time to wait and you obviously don't want to mess with him. Assuming he is a decent player his range isn't any 2 but its alot wider that A8+ 55+ any 2 broadway.

Even with that I don't think you have any FE here if you did maybe you could push but he easily has enough chips to call you with and not be crippled. I lay this down.

[Scuba Chuck]

OKAY,

Hand Range of villain (if called on the reraise): A8+, 55+, KQ-KT, QJ-QT.

TT is a 58.8% favorite against that range.

Fold = 25.65% of the equity prize pool
Push, win no showdown = 32.45%
Push, called and win = 37.29%

I'm only going to assume a 20% probability of not getting called on the reraise.

Pushing = (.2)(.3245)+(.8)(.588)(.3729)
Pushing = .0649 + .1754
Pushing = .240 = 24%

Folding is sublime.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming he is a decent player his range isn't any 2 but its alot wider that A8+ 55+ any 2 broadway

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, give me a range.