bubble (and almost bubble) disasters

[dfscott]

I've been having a rough time on and close to the bubble lately. I play fairly aggressively, so I'm not sure if it's due to variance or over-aggressive play. Here's a few pushes from tonight that didn't work out. They all seem to be +EV, ICM-wise, but I'm not sure if it makes sense considering the shorties about to bust.

Hand 1
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter

UTG (t270)
MP (t1500)
Button (t3100)
Hero (t1150)
BB (t1980)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero pushes.

Hand 2
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

BB (t570)
Hero (t1930)
Button (t2070)
SB (t3430)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero pushes.

Hand 3
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter

UTG (t2245)
Hero (t1340)
Button (t1645)
SB (t700)
BB (t2070)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero pushes.

[prepotency]

Don't like the first two, love the third.

I don't think the second push is bad but I prefer to let shorty bust himself before i take a chance with these hands. Of course, that would depend on how the table has been playing until now, etc.
The first one I don't disagree with either but it also depends on how your BB is playing. I hesitate here because these are marginal holdings and this just reeks of a steal, it's obvious to me that you're pushing with practically any two here and so the calling standards drastically reduce and big lick isn't usually going to be favored if he calls. I dunno, it's probably pretty close either way, just a matter of preference.

Sounds to me like you keep getting into these situations because you're not loosening up enough around lvl 4/5 and picking up any pots. I noticed the same thing happening to me where I kept losing my +EV pushes but it was really just because I didn't get enough action in levels 4/5 to pad me one or two laps when it counts.

just my thoughts - what do you think?

[holeplug]

Hand 1) I would fold

Hand 2) I think is fine but if the big stack has been making some loose calls I may chuck it

Hand 3) Fine

[eastbay]

My least fave is #2.

All 3 plays may or may not make sense depending on context.

eastbay

[The Yugoslavian]

I like 1 and 3.....2 I'm not so sure about. I hate that both other stacks have you covered. I most likely fold in this spot unless the bigger stacks are walking the blinds alot.

Yugoslav

[Jason Strasser]

1 and 3 good.

2 is bad because it feels like too much risk for the reward especially if bb is decent and will never fold here.

[1C5]

I probably fold 2, but push the others.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I probably fold 2, but push the others.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Degen]

I like the 3rd push, however the second I think is ill-advised as you have one guy so close to busting and the blinds are still (relatively) small.

The first one is bad for the odds he is getting, you should have stolen once or twice before this. You are giving him the right odds to call with a lot of hands. You are making it 1150 to go, creating a 1450 pot that he only has to call 850 more to get into. Thats nearly 2:1 and he still has ~1000 left if he loses, but he'll be in great shape AND ITM if he wins. If I were him i'd be calling with a wide range of hands here and POSSIBLY any two.


Degen

[curtains]

Hand 1 - I usually go allin

Hand 2 - I definitely wouldn't go allin

Hand 3 - I would go allin