$50+5 Bubble Call

[Degen]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

BB (t2320)
UTG (t1790)
Hero (t3600)
SB (t2290)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t800</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t2320 (All-In)</font>, Hero ????

Final Pot: t3320


My notes say he's a good tight agressive player. Definately capable of re-raising w/ trash but he could also have a big hand. I had been min-raising often 4-handed (w/out much of a fuss) so possibly he's taking a stand.

The pot is laying me slightly over 2:1 but if I lose this, I post 600 in blinds the next two hands and have ~700 left. If I fold I can go on w/ plenty.

Should I be calling this or folding? Please ignore the amount I raised, I normally raise more but these guys were giving their blinds to me.


Degen

[LeVoodoo]

[ QUOTE ]
If I fold I can go on w/ plenty.


[/ QUOTE ]

[Mr_J]

Well unless he's weak tight (folds to minraises and won't come in over the top) then you are better off just pushing here at this blind level.

Also, you get the odds to call. I wouldn't though because if you lose you have seriously diminished equity (1300 chips at 200/400 ain't nice).

forget what I said about the raise

[pokerraja]

I would fold. You have odds, but your most likely behind. FOld and you can probably keep stealing.

[Degen]

awesome...good to get affirmation that you made the right move...thanks guys


Degen

[lastchance]

Push all-in preflop. When opponents both have stacks under 6x BB, IMHO, it's not close. BTW, I call.

[joshzero]

It's my opinion that people generally make big mistakes by calling huge raises with the big stack on the bubble. True--you are getting a little better than 2:1 on your T-chips, but as chipleader you are getting much less than that equity-wise...I have a feeling it's more like 3:2.

Given that, let's say 1/2 the time you are a coin flip, the other half you are a 40:60 underdog. I'd say this is pretty generous for your case. If you are getting 3:2 on your money, then by not making the call you lose 5% of the equity value of the pot had you called. The pot is probably worth an even money shot between 1st and 2nd, i.e, $200. So, you'll probably lose less than $10 EV by throwing your hand away. The reason I would fold, though, is that a) you will probably gain more than $10 EV in the next two dozen hands, and b) your standard deviation is significantly reduced.

joshzero

[Nottom]

You like min-raising too much. If you are going to call an all-in from the 2nd biggest stack at the table, then you should have just pushed.

Edit: For some reason I thought you called. Either way I still don't like the min-raise since it gives people a chance to think they have folding equity.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
It's my opinion that people generally make big mistakes by calling huge raises with the big stack on the bubble. True--you are getting a little better than 2:1 on your T-chips, but as chipleader you are getting much less than that equity-wise...I have a feeling it's more like 3:2.

[/ QUOTE ]

From an ICM perspective Hero needs to win just over 42% of the time, so your gut feel seems about right.

[Degen]

kindly read my post

*plz ignore the min-raise, as i usually raise more, but these guys were DONATING their blinds to me

and no i did not call, i ran my stack from ~1500 to over 3k from min-raising those guys, so in this case, it was working...i def agree that in most cases a push here is warranted


Degen