Betting for Value on 7th street.

[LittleLTluc]

After playing a ton of online 3/6 and 1/2 Stud, I have begun noticing a trend. I need some advice on when to value bet on the END. I often find myself check calling the river and dragging many of the pots instead of betting for value. An example would be if you know that two players are drawing to Str8's or flushes. I guess I was hoping for some suggestions on when to bet for value and when to check call. And advice or suggestions is appreciated.

[TheShootah]

I will give you this little tidbit: It's completely -EV to bet on the end vs. pure straight and flush draws. Do you see why? Only two things can happen, you bet and they fold, and you win, which would happen if you checked it down anyway, or you bet and raise, which means they probably completed their draw, and you are losing 1-2 bets instead of just checking and calling. Betting against draws has no value. Poker is always situational, but the times you should be betting are the times you figure to get paid off by the worst hand, for example when you suspect that your opponent has two pair and you have a hand like (A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K) J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) Your opponent may figure he is beat, but will have to pay you off anyway. Remember that betting for value, you should figure most of the time you should have the best hand, AND get paid off.

[LittleLTluc]

thanks for the response

[TheShootah]

Glad to help. Hopefully someone that is good at Stud ( [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] ) will come in and help you out better than I could.

[LittleLTluc]

any ifo is good. You confirmed that check calling is a decent strategy because drawing players either fold or raise. I might not be missing as many bets on the end as i thought.

[CarlosChadha]

Hi All,

Ashley Adams had a great article at www.cardplayer.com written within the last year on value betting with made hands on the river...even if you think your opponent might be on a draw (in head sup situations much more so than 3 way). The gist of it was that while theoretically it is -EV to bet anyting up to trips v a prob flush/str8 draw, you actually should often bet them because you will usually get called when your opponent has anyhting decent (certainly any 2 pair and many pairs as well) since the pot is huge at that point and most people (correctly) don't fold often on the river). So the times that you misread your opponent's hand and really he has been calling you down with a pair, combined with the chances that he was on a draw, but backed into a pair or 2 pair often outweigh those times where he makes his hand and you get raised and you lose 1 extra big bet (not 2 since you would have check called anyway). Usually the only time you shouldn't make these bets is when your opponent's board is very scary and live, or when you opponent is a habitual bluffer.

Regards,
Carlos

[Andy B]

There is an extensive discussion of this topic in Theory of Poker.