TPTK. Villian waking up on river.

[kongo_totte]

Villian is 17/2.5 after 100 hands. No reads.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) converter

BB ($111.65)
UTG ($126.4)
UTG+1 ($67.65)
Hero ($111.25)
MP2 ($183.38)
CO ($113.35)
Button ($102)
SB ($108.67)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $4.

Flop: ($11.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, UTG+1 calls $8.

Turn: ($27.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, UTG+1 calls $20.

River: ($67.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Villian pushes for $34 Hero.....?

Final Pot: $67.50

[MikeL]

I'm guessing that you have played against the villian before and you just don't remember. If so, he may have hit his TT set and has seen you overplay TPTK.

Just a guess,
Mike L.

[FlipPoker]

With no reads, I think you have to fold on the river. He's saying he can beat top pair. I think you have to give him credit for that until you get a feel for his play. Save your money and hope he shows his cards so you can make a note.

[kongo_totte]

He didn't show, but he made a comment afterwards that bugged me, "I guess you didn't have the ace". don't know what to make of it.

BTW, I folded if it wasn't clear.

[FlipPoker]

[ QUOTE ]
He didn't show, but he made a comment afterwards that bugged me, "I guess you didn't have the ace". don't know what to make of it.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think it means he was hoping you had the ace and that you'd make the call. I think you thoroughly disappointed him by making a good laydown.

[The_Bends]

The call, call, push/raise pattern indicates a strong hand 9 times from ten. Annoying but you've lost.

Nice laydown

[TrailofTears]

Does anyone else think that villain might just be trying to create fequity since he knows he is going to call any river bet anyways?

-Trail

[MisterKing]

Initially, I planned on saying that you need to fold this river. After going through what he could have, I am less sure.

As others have said, his line indicated tremendous strength (probably acquired on the flop) a high % of the time. The exception is a tricky opponent capable of pushing on a missed flush... notes/reads are key here.

Here's the issue: he limped in EP PF, and then just called your $5 raise. To me, this says he has one of three types of hands: middle s00ted connectors, small or medium pocket pair, or Axs. Personally, I think the latter two are most likely here, with A4s, 44, 8d7d, JTs, T9s being top contenders. *EDIT* he could have KK/QQ intending to jam the flop or the turn, but wussed out when the ace fell... not that likely, though, but I do see this from time to time.*

His turn check-call is seriously suspicious, and I find myself in your same shoes on the river quite a bit not knowing where I stand with TPTK. A lot of the time I lead out for 30% of the pot and get minraised -- usually for value by an opponent who knows he's ahead and that I probably need to call.

Now in this case, you have position, so it changes some things. What happens if he lead-checks the river? You would seem likely to check behind, which he seems to want to avoid. The question is whether he wants to avoid the check-behind because he's got a loser and wants the pot, or because he has a winner and he wants some more value out of it. Either way, you're getting 3:1 on a call, and the read on your opponent (esp. his aggression factor and VP$IP) will help you decide if that's a good price or not. Against a 40/15/3 I'm calling. Against a 15/5/1, I'm folding.

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else think that villain might just be trying to create fequity since he knows he is going to call any river bet anyways?

-Trail

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so in this case, but this is something I need to do more myself. Interesting concept.