77 with a poll

[Nick Royale]

Villian had pretty laggy stats after 30 hands (50/20/3). But that could be an effect of getting nice hands. I didn't know for sure at the time.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
Hero calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.
Wanted a cheap showdown, but that might be disastrous since I'm giving overcards a freecard. I don't like my play but if I bet and get raised I need to pay 3BB's to see a showdown, which I do believe this hand require.

[adamstewart]

wtf?

Bet the turn (but fold to a check-raise).

Also, bet the river.


I really don't get your passiveness here.


Adam

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf?

Bet the turn (but fold to a check-raise).

Also, bet the river.


I really don't get your passiveness here.


Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a poll... And I'm the only vote for bet/ fold so far. I missed the read, so I could be persuaded to call down, but i still think it's a fold.

[adamstewart]

I didn't vote for the poll, because I'm not sure whether he's referring to a suggested line for the TURN or the RIVER.

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Adam

[chief444]

I think that would be fine against a more passive opponent.

But even though it's only 30 hands those are a good indication this opponent is not passive.

I chose bet/call. I hate checking it. But I'd rather check the turn and call a river bet than lay this one down against an opponent who very well may bluff a scary board. I think bet/call is best though.

[brettbrettr]

Bet the turn, bet the river. Of course, it would help to know what the river acrd is, but I'm likely betting it anyways.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that would be fine against a more passive opponent.

But even though it's only 30 hands those are a good indication this opponent is not passive.

I chose bet/call. I hate checking it. But I'd rather check the turn and call a river bet than lay this one down against an opponent who very well may bluff a scary board. I think bet/call is best though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that the LAG opponent makes this a much harder decision. With the strength that you are displaying, I find it hard for a LAG to expect a c/r bluff to work. I would almost expect him to lead the turn as a bluff here, but never with the straight. But, trying to interpret the moves of a LAG is sometimes impossible, so I don't mind calling down. Checking, we can all agree, is pretty bad.

[coolhanded]

I bet the turn and fold to a check raise. If he calls the turn and the river is anything but an A, I call the river. He'll most likely raise you with A4 (or 44) on the turn if that's what he has. My guess is he simply bet an A with a gutshot straight draw on the flop.

(BTW----great use of polling here. Have you checked out "The Wisdom of Crowds" (book)? It's argues that the collective wisdom of a group of diverse, independent thinking people generally leads to better decisions than any single member, even the most intelligent one. Think stock market index performance vs. mutual funds.)

[Pokey]

I bet the turn -- someone playing half their hands just doesn't have 77 beaten on this board often enough for you to have less than 2/3 pot equity. He might have a stray 2, 3, 5, or 6, but if someone this aggressive has the straight he's making it three on the flop. You can rule out the 4.

Your only real worry is an overpair above your own. Not only are those unlikely holdings, but you've also got 6 outs against them.

Bet the turn, call the check-raise and call any river card except a 4 or a 7 (raise those obviously).

The big problem I see is that, of the 47 cards left, basically 42 of them are scare cards for you (everything except the two remaining sevens and the three non-heart fours). No matter WHAT comes on the river, you're not going to like it: they either make flushes you don't have, overpairs to your sevens, or possible trips. I think you really need to take this chance to win it right here.

<font color="blue">Edit to mention: I don't think you can fold the river unless it's a REALLY scary card, like an ace or a heart honor. Just because a card scares you doesn't mean that a LAG betting it should scare you out of a pot with 7-9BBs and you holding overpairs/second pair.</font>

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian had pretty laggy stats after 30 hands

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But that could be an effect of getting nice hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

It could be, but he could also be a LAG. I'd say it's at least 2-1 that he's a LAG having those stats after 30 hands.

I bet the turn, call a raise and call the river UI.