#1
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Garbage on the bubble
I have 1400 on button, sb has ~3500, bb has ~1000 after posting the blinds, utg folds, blinds are 200/400. Should I be pushing any two here? If not, what sort of selectivity should I use? Assume up to this point I have made enough pushes to keep from getting blinded away to nothing, but hadn't been getting too crazy with it.
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#2
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Re: Garbage on the bubble
Do the math. It will answer your question.
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#3
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Some Math
I've gotten two PMs on this today, and apparently me pushing forum members to do the math is only spurring others to push me back. So here is the math. My thoughts, before I begin is that pushing with any two cards is correct here.
I'll assume this is a $33 game or below, so t8000 total chips. UTG - 1700 Button/Hero - 1400 SB - 3500 BB - 1400 Blinds 200/400 SB hand range is very tight, and BB hand range will be more loose. It's too difficult to assume more than one will call, so I will only assume BB will call any of the pushes, and since he has a wider hand range, it will make the numbers look "good enough." Let's assume two Hand Ranges (HR), for shits and giggles: (T ~ tight, L ~ loose) HR(T) - 77+, A9+, KJ+ HR(L) - 44+, A5+, K9+, QJ, JT The probability (PR) of BB having these hands is PR(T) = 12.1% PR(L) = 38.7% X = probability of winning this hand against this range. So the probability of BB folding is HR(T) = 1-PR(T) HR(L) = 1-PR(L) $EV analysis (ICM) Folding = 20.8% of the equity prize pool Push, steal blinds = 26.4% Push, and win hand = 34.9% Therefore breakeven is HR(T) .208 = (.879)(.264)+(.121)(X)(.349) .208 = .232 + .042X X = -.57, or essentially, better than any two cards. (note, it's a negative number) HR(L) .208 = (.613)(.264)+(.387)(X)(.349) .208 = .161 + .135X X = .348 or 35% win probability. *so essentially, again, any two cards is a correct push. Next time I say you do the math. If you try to do it, then PM me, I will come and help subsequently. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Scuba |
#4
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Re: Some Math
What would be far more interesting, is what range of hands should you "Call" with if hero was BB here? I think the range opens up quite a bit. Anyone up to do the math?
Scuba |
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