Outs and Odds

M50Paul · #1 04-13-2005, 12:02 PM

I was thinking of trying to make an outs and odds table for seven card stud unless you know where one exists. I have seen them for Hodem but enver for stud. I would think one exists soemwhere

CORed · #2 04-13-2005, 12:20 PM

This is more difficult to do in stud, because the number of cards seen is variable, depending on how many people are in on the various streets. In holdem, you always have 47 unseen cards on the flop and 46 on the turn. In stud, it's not that simple.

count1 · #3 04-13-2005, 12:29 PM

Can anyone tell me how to figure odds. Hypothetical question: 5th street has been dealt. Total of 31 cards dealt, need a six to complete a straight. Two of the sixes are dead. How do I compute my odds to hit the straight?

kevyk · #4 04-13-2005, 05:04 PM

I've been trying to find a way to utilize outs in a sensible way in Stud. Here's what I've come up with:

In an 8-handed game, there are 42 unknown cards on 3rd street. Assuming a semi-reasonable progression of the hand, I'd estimate 38-40 unknowns on 4th, 35-38 on 5th, and 32-36 on 5th.

Thus I think reasonable estimates of an out's percent chance of making a hand would be 2.5%, 2.5%, 3.0%, 3.0%, on 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th streets, respectively.

kevyk · #5 04-13-2005, 05:13 PM

I think this is right:

31 cards have been dealt, meaning 24 on 3rd st., 4 on 4th, and 3 on 5th. You know 17 of them (your 2 in the hole, the 8 3rd street upcards, the 4 4th st upcards, and the 3 5th street upcards), so there are 35 unknown cards. If you believe the 2 remaining sizes to be live, you have a 2.8% (1/35) chance of catching one on 6th street and a 3.0% (1/33) chance of catching on the river. Your chance of making a straight by the river is 1-0.972*0.97 = 5.7%

Someone check this...

M50Paul · #6 04-15-2005, 09:14 AM

I have started building a table of outs vs unseen cards. Because there are so many possibilties I have focused in on 3-5 players in the pot and from 4th street on. Right now I have just finished the pot odds and it looks like with 8 outs and 47 cards unseen it is a 5 to 1 odds. While with 30 cards unseen it is 3 to 1. The range of unseen cards goes from 47 to 30 which represents any number of palyers up to 5 though 6th street. The other axis is outs and I have focuesed on 6 to 15 outs. The table right now represents pot odds for the next bet not to the end which I am working on now. I have it in excell and would like someone to check when I am done.
Am I wasting my time or does this have value in stud? It seems like it should be of use assuming you are drawing to the best hand

PoorLawyer · #7 04-15-2005, 01:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I have started building a table of outs vs unseen cards. Because there are so many possibilties I have focused in on 3-5 players in the pot and from 4th street on. Right now I have just finished the pot odds and it looks like with 8 outs and 47 cards unseen it is a 5 to 1 odds. While with 30 cards unseen it is 3 to 1. The range of unseen cards goes from 47 to 30 which represents any number of palyers up to 5 though 6th street. The other axis is outs and I have focuesed on 6 to 15 outs. The table right now represents pot odds for the next bet not to the end which I am working on now. I have it in excell and would like someone to check when I am done.
Am I wasting my time or does this have value in stud? It seems like it should be of use assuming you are drawing to the best hand

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is kind of a waste of time and the general principles are much more important. You need to know if your cards are live most importantly. There are tables in either TOP or 7CS4AP that give the odds of making flushes/straights depending on the number of your suit out or dead cards. I think the overarching theories such as dont play 3 flushes with more than 2 of your suit out and be even tighter with straights (there are debates about this -- i tend to go with West on this and play straights with at least an 8 in them and use the 2 point counting system) are more important than the exact number of outs you have. It is too tough to determine this precisly in the heat of battle and does not have a lot of value. you can figure out how many outs there are to your straight but if there is a 3 flush on board after you and a raise in front of you, it won't matter how many outs you have because you are in a tough spot -- you can't know this in hold em like you can in stud, which is why outs are so much more important in hold em.

M50Paul · #8 04-15-2005, 02:10 PM

Thanks for the straight shooting comments. I have had mixed emotions about this for a bit. I do understand some of the complexities and maybe it is more straight forward to go by the general rule of thumbs for stud

Thanks

PoorLawyer · #9 04-15-2005, 03:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the straight shooting comments. I have had mixed emotions about this for a bit. I do understand some of the complexities and maybe it is more straight forward to go by the general rule of thumbs for stud

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't see how having such a chart next to your computer would really change many of the decisions you make in a hand. I could be wrong though, who knows.

SittingBull · #10 04-15-2005, 05:39 PM

derived a forula for computing odds as a function of the # of outs,cards in player's hand,total cards seen.
The formula determines the odds of completinh a particula hand by the river based on these independent variables.
U might want to consult the mathematicians on the "Probability Section". [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
SittingBull