$10+1: Steal now to preserve future FE?

[spentrent]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) converter

Button (t1125)
SB (t1330)
BB (t1165)
UTG (t1095)
MP1 (t1775)
Hero (t705)
CO (t805)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ???

This is the first hand at 100/200. I have stolen the blinds the last 2 hands in a row.

Do I let the button get to me and then play bingo? Or do I push now when I have the most FE (EDIT: relative to my distance from the button)? Yes, I realize my FE has been affected by two straight steals. That's fair game in this discussion.

(My goal with all of these steal/FE/range posts is to get a sense of when desperation, as determined by stack size, overrides logic-- if that's even the right way to put it.)

[1C5]

No, i fold this forsure, if you pushed 2x in a row there is a good chance someone at the $11 level will call with Ax or even worse.

[EverettKings]

In this situation, to push 89o is to push any two. And I don't think this is the time for that just yet.

Yes, you're pretty friggin short, but you have 2 hands til the blinds, and can catch something in those still. With 4 players left to act, the odds that you get called here are just too great IMO. Unless they are unusually weak-tight, I'd wait for a better spot.

-Kings

[spentrent]

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No, i fold this forsure, if you pushed 2x in a row there is a good chance someone at the $11 level will call with Ax or even worse.

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Does it matter that I'm at only 2.5BBs and I probably need some luck to finish ITM anyway? I allow connectors like 89o exactly because a part of me welcomes Ax to call here. That's the desperation speaking. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Unarmed]

Push.
BTW if your opponents call with A7o+, all suited aces, all pocket pairs, all suited broadway, your 89o does better than A5o.

Waiting for a better hand is dangerous because you have no guarantee someone won't push before you do.

[Scuba Chuck]

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I have stolen the blinds the last 2 hands in a row.

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Now that is a tight table. So you accumulated 300 chips in the last two hands, starting with just 400. Nice job.

Your table image is very poor now. Someone's bound to play table cop with a hand like A9 soon. Anyway, from your post, I suspect you're feeling very anxious. Relax. You're fine, IMO. Should you push this hand? I wouldn't. I would wait for a premium hand, or wait to push any two against the guys who just folded the previous orbit to your pushes. They obviously are VERY tight. It would cost your 300 to gain 600 that route. Hopefully, a few others will knock each other out in the meantime.

GL and play well.
Scuba

[spentrent]

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Yes, you're pretty friggin short, but you have 2 hands til the blinds, and can catch something in those still. With 4 players left to act, the odds that you get called here are just too great IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are so many things in this paragraph that I have difficulty quantifying. In the next two hands, how likely will I be dealt something that fares well against Ax? How is my FE affected by getting further away from the button with each deal? With 4 players left to act, how do I quantify the odds of getting called, and thus decide what range IS pushable here? Ya know what I mean?

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Unless they are unusually weak-tight, I'd wait for a better spot.

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Definitely a factor. Despite the frequent chicken little posts about the $10+1s getting so much tighter, 7 players at 100/200 is unusual. I don't know if "weak-tight" is the right way to describe pre-flop discipline though. I hope not [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

[1C5]

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[ QUOTE ]
No, i fold this forsure, if you pushed 2x in a row there is a good chance someone at the $11 level will call with Ax or even worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does it matter that I'm at only 2.5BBs and I probably need some luck to finish ITM anyway? I allow connectors like 89o exactly because a part of me welcomes Ax to call here. That's the desperation speaking. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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This is true, pushing is not a bad play here. I would fold but an argument can be made for pushing also.

[Scuba Chuck]

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Waiting for a better hand is dangerous because you have no guarantee someone won't push before you do.

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OK, let's talk about the psychology of lower limits. Look at the stacksizes relative to the blinds. What's about to start happening?

The bigger stacks are gonna tighten up - 'cos they're fish, and they need to make they're money back they lost the previous 20 games. The smaller stacks are getting anxious, and they don't want to lose, and they've seen the pros on tv push with crap and win all the time. This is a very interesting stage. RELAX. RELAX. It's important that you're considering when to push, but relax. The picture becomes clear when you're in the right state of mind. Pushing 3 hands in a row when it's 7 handed is very unwise, IMO.

If you're multi-tabling here, and you're not relaxed, reduce the number of tables you're playing. Keep a clear head. Relax.

Right now is like watching the pirhannas eating themselves. The table tends to start to implode. Sometimes, and I mean sometimes, folding will bring you into 3rd place. I'm not saying that's the best play, but I'm trying to point out that being patient here is a good move, IMO.

If I were in these shoes considering what you've told me, I'd think about pushing, then I'd take a swig of honeyweiss, and hit the fold button. "gooosewaba"

Scuba

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have stolen the blinds the last 2 hands in a row.

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Now that is a tight table. So you accumulated 300 chips in the last two hands, starting with just 400. Nice job.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was actually an unusually tight-aggressive table for the $10+1s in that most pots were being opened with a raise, hence my inability to steal effectively any earlier. I was very very very patient before I got crazy from the button/CO those 2 hands.

[ QUOTE ]
Your table image is very poor now. Someone's bound to play table cop with a hand like A9 soon. Anyway, from your post, I suspect you're feeling very anxious. Relax. You're fine, IMO. Should you push this hand? I wouldn't. I would wait for a premium hand, or wait to push any two against the guys who just folded the previous orbit to your pushes. They obviously are VERY tight. It would cost your 300 to gain 600 that route. Hopefully, a few others will knock each other out in the meantime.

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I hadn't considered that the blind increase also made everyone else a little more desperate. (I knew I bought TPFAP for a reason [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ). So perhaps my share of the prize pool now has a better chance of increasing now that the chance of fireworks has increased? Is this what you're saying?

Regarding waiting for a premium hand-- what if I had NOT stolen twice in a row at this unusually tight table? Would preserving future FE be the deciding factor here to include 89o in my push range, since my image hasn't deteriorated to the point where a table cop needs to call with Ax?