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#1
04-12-2005, 04:38 AM
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Big push on the flop
PP 100NL-6max.
Hero BB (100) Loose caller UTG (350) Unknown LP (100) Others (not involved) Thus far, loosey has check/called a few times for pot bets with middle-pair, no kicker, no draw, and bottom pair, no kicker and no draw. I've got A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Loose goose calls, LP makes it 4 to play, I call, and goosey calls. Flop is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I check, loosey checks, LP bets pot (11). I push ... anybody like ? Anybody dislike ? 
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#2
04-12-2005, 04:44 AM
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Re: Big push on the flop
Eh. You probably have over 33% pot equity, so if you are sure that loose guy will call, this could be +EV. LP could also just be making a continuation bet, and will probably fold over 50% of the time, which increases your equity quite a bit.
In general though, this is a really horrible call preflop.
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#3
04-12-2005, 04:50 AM
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Re: Big push on the flop
Poor call preflop, especially out of the blind. And I would bet the pot here and hope to sandwich loosey in the middle of you and LP's (hopeful) raise so you can push it all in with some extra dead money in the middle. Which will also make it more likely for loosey to chase whatever garbage he has because he will have some money 'invested' already and the pot will be huge so he will want to get in on it. Since you are drawing to the nuts, you definitely want him in.
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#4
04-12-2005, 04:55 AM
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Re: Big push on the flop
i hate the push. you want to take advantage of the loosie's bad calling. you do the opposite by forcing him to call 100 cold. he will only do this with hands that have an advantage over you.
the push vs the pfr isnt great either because you are risking alot to pick up a smallish pot and will get called more than you should by overpairs because of the flush draw on the board. you would be better served playing this hand to allow the bad player to make mistakes and put dead money in the pot.
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#5
04-12-2005, 04:57 AM
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Re: Big push on the flop
[ QUOTE ]
Poor call preflop, especially out of the blind. And I would bet the pot here and hope to sandwich loosey in the middle of you and LP's (hopeful) raise so you can push it all in with some extra dead money in the middle. Which will also make it more likely for loosey to chase whatever garbage he has because he will have some money 'invested' already and the pot will be huge so he will want to get in on it. Since you are drawing to the nuts, you definitely want him in. [/ QUOTE ] i agree with this, except i am not hoping that lp raises so i can push all in. if he raises my pot bet, he isnt folding enough of the time, especially if loosie calls. if i bet the flop, i must feel that lp wont raise very often, either because he raises pf with alot of weakish hands, or because he plays his biggish hands passively post flop. the advantage of betting the flop obviously is that you get paid off much more if you hit your draw than if you would have check called the flop.
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#6
04-12-2005, 09:49 AM
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Re: Big push on the flop
[ QUOTE ]
Poor call preflop, especially out of the blind. And I would bet the pot here and hope to sandwich loosey in the middle of you and LP's (hopeful) raise so you can push it all in with some extra dead money in the middle. Which will also make it more likely for loosey to chase whatever garbage he has because he will have some money 'invested' already and the pot will be huge so he will want to get in on it. Since you are drawing to the nuts, you definitely want him in. [/ QUOTE ] If I bet the pot, loosey calls, and LP calls, then whats my plan for the turn if its blanks ? If it hits my 9 ?
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#7
04-12-2005, 09:58 AM
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Re: Big push on the flop
[ QUOTE ]
i hate the push. you want to take advantage of the loosie's bad calling. you do the opposite by forcing him to call 100 cold. he will only do this with hands that have an advantage over you. the push vs the pfr isnt great either because you are risking alot to pick up a smallish pot and will get called more than you should by overpairs because of the flush draw on the board. you would be better served playing this hand to allow the bad player to make mistakes and put dead money in the pot. [/ QUOTE ] Do I mind overpairs calling ? If 88 calls then I've got 15outs twice, and if 99-KK calls then I've got 12 outs twice. Obviously its better if they fold, but am I in horrible shape if they call ? This move is far better with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I guess as it gives me 15outs much more often. Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 3c 7h 2h cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ah 9h 458 46.26 532 53.74 0 0.00 0.463 Ks Kc 532 53.74 458 46.26 0 0.00 0.537 So with the pot being 20, I can bang in the rest, and if he folds some overpairs then I win, and if not, then its not too bad because of coin flippage. Also, the only "likely" caller is 77. 22 and 33 are somewhat likely, but 77 would be the most likely. If I get called then I can do this later with a big hand and maybe get called by a less big hand. Does nobody like it at all ? :-(
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#8
04-12-2005, 10:09 AM
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Re: Big push on the flop
*I* like it! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
You only go substantially -EV if (1) loosey folds and (2) LP holds Ace-T/J/Q/K/A. But against the push he probably folds all those except AA. If loosey calls, who cares what LP has, you get your flush odds.
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#10
04-12-2005, 10:16 AM
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Re: Big push on the flop
With regard to the call preflop, this is a 6max table, and as far as I remember there were only 4 active players (perhaps that is useful information that I should have brought up before now).
In those circumstances, does nobody call with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] pf ?
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