$55: Would you risk your stack at lvl2 + call an all-in with 16 outs?

[AA suited]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">HERO (t955)</font>
UTG+1 (t965)
MP1 (t1100)
MP2 (t2450)
<font color="#C00000">MP3 (t870)</font>
CO (t895)
Button (t930)
SB (t885)
BB (t950)

Preflop: HERO is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">HERO raises to t60</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t90</font>, CO calls t90, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, HERO calls t30.

Flop: (t315) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
HERO checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets t780 (All-In)</font>, CO folds, HERO ???


No reads because of multitabling, but from experience, this type of play smells of a draw bluff (straight or flush).

flush=9 outs
gut straight = 3 outs
2 overcards = 6 outs

= 18 outs

live outs = 16 since i put him on a draw

What would you have done? and more importantly, WHY?

[viennagreen]

if you're going to call an all-in from him, even if you're not thrilled to do it, you should bet the flop.. overbet it by a bit... at least then you have a chance to prevent him from making a play

i'm guessing you called?

i think you have less outs than you think. why would you put him on a draw? what could he have that he would min-raise you with that would give him a draw?

i would say he has AA, KK, AQ, or a remote chance of an ATs... no straight or flush draw

say he had a draw.. it would have to be a straight draw.. KJ is the only real one he could have... maybe he would min raise with KJ, but it's doubtful

[suited_ace]

OK, let's use 16 outs. If you call him, you will see both the turn and the river. You are actually a favorite to win the hand. The pot odds are 1.40 to 1, and you have 0.75 to 1 against to make your hand.

It all comes down to how much your chances of winning are increased by having a big stack early on. I don't play the $55s, so I just can't tell.

This, of course, if you have indeed 16 outs.

[AA suited]

players at 50+5 usually try to extract more $ with an overpair like AA.

with aq, you have tptk. they might want to protect their hand by betting 3/4 pot and make it expensive for someone to draw.

but all-in (2x pot) usually means that you don't want someone to call and willing to risk it all to take the pot there. that's why i put him on a draw bluff.