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  #1  
Old 04-09-2005, 10:51 PM
theredpill5 theredpill5 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 1,059
Default Odds of flopping trips ?

Ok. Here is an example of why I'm having trouble with .10/.25 NL.

I changed my game a bit tonight and took home some good $$$ but I would appreciate an expert player giving me some analysis on this hand. The why kind of alludes me . Why did I call to the river and etc etc. I was 3 tabling so no reads on this guy other than he had nearly a full buy-in. And he had a dumb name.

Hero has $20 in SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
.10/.25 NL

Limped around to me

I raise to $2
MP calls
LP calls

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] pot=8
I bet $4
Mp calls
LP folds

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I bet $5
Mp raises to $10
Hero calls

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets $5 All-in
MP calls

MP shows T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
WTF

This is why I have trouble at these stakes. I'm trying to think more about the long run than one single hand at a time and tonight it certainly help me find my balls. I doubled up with QQ on another table earlier. I just wonder if I'm good enough to play 3 tables at one time. I think I should go down to 2.

Let me know how you think I played it. I probably should have pushed all-in on the turn.

MP said that he put me on AK ....ace high and that was the reason he called to the river. What do you think ? I need to be thinking what MP is thinking of me ? MP thinks I'm weak therefore I call his raise, etc.
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  #2  
Old 04-10-2005, 12:00 AM
swolfe swolfe is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 632
Default Re: Odds of flopping trips ?

why are you underbetting the pot so much?
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  #3  
Old 04-10-2005, 12:44 AM
theredpill5 theredpill5 is offline
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Posts: 1,059
Default Re: Odds of flopping trips ?

Half pot bet. Gives improper odds for a flush draw and gauges where I'm at. Turn bet is too small, I admit. Not sure why I bet so small there. He had 5 outs, though. 8 to 1 and he definitely wasn't getting it.

Do you think someone with trips would raise that $4 bet on the flop or just call ? What about the turn. He minimum raised my $5 bet. Ideas ? Am I thinking about this all wrong ?
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  #4  
Old 04-10-2005, 05:53 PM
theredpill5 theredpill5 is offline
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Posts: 1,059
Default Re: Odds of flopping trips ?

So what are the odds of someone flopping trips ? Where can I find these odds ? thanks
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  #5  
Old 04-10-2005, 06:01 PM
wegs the wegs wegs the wegs is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 46
Default Re: Odds of flopping trips ?

Well flopping trips with a pocket pair is 8:1 and flopping trips with unpaired cards is something like 54:1
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  #6  
Old 04-11-2005, 04:28 AM
Trainwreck Trainwreck is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Next to some tracks
Posts: 304
Default Re: Odds of flopping trips ?

My thinking is, he raised YOU on the turn:

Because he put you on a hand he could beat, to represent a Q, and/or possibly for a free showdown which you wisely didn't give him.

Poker is gambling and looks like you both took your shots on that hand, well done!

1 for you, 0 for opponent.

As for you pushing on the turn, if you had went in all for $15 then, he would have likely folded, he tried to steal the pot with a reraise, failed, and you're AI river bet took control away from him, just thankfully his hand was weak.

I think the fact he DIDN'T put you to the test on HIS turn raise might have been a tell that he wasn't strong, why let YOU have all of $5 left?

>TW<

Here's a listing of odds I quickly found:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...hp?t=9366&

and a lengthy discussion afterwards.
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