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#1
04-08-2005, 09:18 PM
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I would fold and steal on the next hand
On several posts recently where calling is slightly +$EV, I see a lot of responses like "I'd fold and steal on the next hand." I decided to look into this plan.....
Blinds 100/200. Party 30/3 UTG 2000 BUTTON 1700 SB 2100 BB/HERO 2200 UTG folds, button pushes, SB folds. You have XX. You run ICM and find that calling gives and ICM of 0.26 and folding is 0.25. This is close, so you decide to just fold and push on the next hand from the SB. You know the player to your left is tight and will only call with AA-77, AK, and AQ. A random hand against this range is 29.4%. However, there is only a 8.28% chance that he'll be dealt one of these (ie 14/169). Stacks are now... UTG 2000 BUTTON 2000 SB/HERO 2000 BB 2000 If you push and he folds, your ICM is 0.2657. If you push and he calls and you win, your ICM is 0.3833. (It's 0 if you lose, of course). (0.2657 * 0.917)+((0.3833*0.294)*0.0828) = 0.253 On the previous hand we turned turn an ICM of 0.26 so we could get an ICM of 0.253. Well, what if UTG or button push? If they push and we fold, our ICM is 0.2425. If they push 60% of the time and we always fold, your ICM is: (0.2425 * 0.40) + (0.253 * 0.60) = 0.2467 Of course, sometimes you'll get a monster hand and call their steal, or the BB will call the steal. This is too complicated. If you throw in a few decimals for this, you get back to 0.25. Remember, we were 0.253 if the UTG/Button never pushed. Let's review. You were in BB. You could have called for 0.26 ICM. Instead, you folded for 0.25 with the intention of pushing on the next hand to make up for this. You plan has an ICM of 0.25, an increase of 0. Isn't blind stealing good? Why didn't the ICM go up? Well, a blind steal at 100/200 only has a small influence on ICM. You are risking your whole stack to win only 200 after all. It is+$EV, but not enough to make up for the fact that you have to post the SB. Moral of the story: blinds steals give small increases in $EV. When people say, "I'll pass on the small +$EV because I'd rather blind steal", they are contradicting themselves. 
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#2
04-08-2005, 11:01 PM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
[ QUOTE ]
Moral of the story: blinds steals give small increases in $EV. When people say, "I'll pass on the small +$EV because I'd rather blind steal", they are contradicting themselves. [/ QUOTE ] By itself, it is of course true. But the accumulated effect of a sound blind stealing strategy is a large increase in +EV. Thats not to say calling a small +EV situation is wrong on the bubble of course.
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#4
04-09-2005, 01:28 AM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
I like what you're trying to prove. I think you should change two things.
1) Probability that the hand will be folded to you, so you can attempt a steal 2) Probability BB has a hand AA-77, AK is actually 2.5% (not 8%) because there is only 6 ways to make pairs. Reducing the probability of BB having this hand, and the probability it's folded to you is probably equal to or more -$EV than what you're selling here. So it should still prove your point (if not help it).
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#5
04-09-2005, 01:34 AM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
[ QUOTE ]
2) Probability BB has a hand AA-77, AK is actually 2.5% (not 8%) because there is only 6 ways to make pairs. Reducing the probability of BB having this hand, and the probability it's folded to you is probably equal to or more -$EV than what you're selling here. So it should still prove your point (if not help it). [/ QUOTE ] Umm, what? Reducing the probability of BB holding a big hand from 8% to 2.5% definitely increases your $EV for that push, and thus HURTS his point. Also, I dunno how you guys got your numbers, but 2.5% and 8% are both wrong. It's about 6% (a little less because sometimes you'll be holding one of his cards & he'll have less than the full 80 ways to make his hand).
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#6
04-09-2005, 01:36 AM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
[ QUOTE ]
Umm, what? Reducing the probability of BB holding a big hand from 8.5% to 2.5% definitely increases your $EV for that push, and thus HURTS his point. [/ QUOTE ] . Incorrect. What is the probability it's folded to hero? Do you think there's a 94% probability it's folded to hero. I seriously doubt it.
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#7
04-09-2005, 01:41 AM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Umm, what? Reducing the probability of BB holding a big hand from 8.5% to 2.5% definitely increases your $EV for that push, and thus HURTS his point. [/ QUOTE ] . Incorrect. What is the probability it's folded to hero? Do you think there's a 94% probability it's folded to hero. I seriously doubt it. [/ QUOTE ] My point is correct. Your $EV with a random hand is higher when BB's call% is lower. The fact that you may not always get a chance to push doesn't change that. Edit: ok, I see what you're saying in your OP, but I disagree. I do think UTG & button will both fold something like 40% of the time. Actually I think they will both fold something like 50% of the time.
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#8
04-09-2005, 01:48 AM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Umm, what? Reducing the probability of BB holding a big hand from 8.5% to 2.5% definitely increases your $EV for that push, and thus HURTS his point. [/ QUOTE ] . Incorrect. What is the probability it's folded to hero? Do you think there's a 94% probability it's folded to hero. I seriously doubt it. [/ QUOTE ] Whatchu talkin' bout Scuba dooba doo?! I'm not sure any of Ilya's point has anything to do with how much it is or isn't folded to hero... Yugoslav Who likes the idea of factoring in how often it will be folded to Hero....
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#9
04-09-2005, 02:18 AM
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Re: I would fold and steal on the next hand
[ QUOTE ]
Edit: ok, I see what you're saying in your OP, but I disagree. I do think UTG & button will both fold something like 40% of the time. Actually I think they will both fold something like 50% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] I'm pretty confident you're making Phil VS's point even stronger. If you think there's only a 50% chance of it getting folded you on the next hand, then the advice "I'd fold and steal on the next hand." is beginning to look even worse. Or in this case -$EV. FWIW, I was suggesting that I don't think there is a 94% probability that the next hand will be folded to hero. Which it looks like we completely agree on.
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