in the midst of a downswing...

wyoak · #1 04-01-2005, 09:32 PM

So I'm working on a 2600 hand 135bb downswing right now, which thankfully has been mitigated by a tourney money finish and some bonuses. At about 50bb I bought SSHE (I know, I know) and studied it, and I am continuing to study it. Started combing my PT results at about 100bb. Found myself playing too many unsuited broadways in bad position and cold calling too much. Simple variance is also playing a factor - during my streak I've had JJ 18 times, won with it once, and that was just a blind steal. I was running stupidly hot in the previous 2500 hands, so it was bound to catch up. Anyway, since my slide has continued, I've decided to finally post a hand:

Table was about 33/3, no real read on villian but through 10 hands he's around 25/10, so he's certainly no maniac
Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 3 folds, SB completes, BB calls.
I'm not entirely sure I should be raising PF with this from UTG at a table like this...this is definitely one of my problems, unsuited broadway in early position.

Flop: (2.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB folds, Hero calls.
I don't think I should be capping here. Sure seems like two pair. Then again he might be pumping a flush draw...

Turn: (3.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero ???
Ok, if I believe my read on the flop I'm either drawing extremely slim or dead. Should I call down here? hand converter messed up so those pot sizes are off...it's 6.5BB at the turn.

toss · #2 04-01-2005, 09:49 PM

Your raise Preflop is 100% correct since its 6 handed. From the way you played this hand, it looks like your playing too scared. This looks like a good time to call down.

fire_fly · #3 04-01-2005, 09:55 PM

No no no no no, sorry but this is WAY too timid. the only thing you should fear is A K or some random (unlucky) 2 pair, but you know what? He doesn't have A K. You know why? Cuz he didn't 3 bet preflop. He is likely some idiot who is betting the hell out of his A 5 or some other crap, which I've seen TONS of ppl do at these levels.

I say raise the turn and call down if 3 bet. If he only calls, I'd just call down the river figuring I'm either tied or beaten, but if he checks the river, I believe a value bet is in order here. agree? disagree?

RandBriscoe · #4 04-01-2005, 11:26 PM

On the flop, I'm a little worried about the raggedy A8, after the J counterfeits him, I raise the turn...

If he 3-bets, I call down fearing 88 or JT/Q/Ks (hands a relatively solid player might call with from the SB)

mungpo · #5 04-01-2005, 11:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I say raise the turn and call down if 3 bet. If he only calls, I'd just call down the river figuring I'm either tied or beaten, but if he checks the river, I believe a value bet is in order here. agree? disagree?

[/ QUOTE ]
I am not understanding your reasoning for a reraise on the turn and calling a 3-bet.

I would check-call to the river.

RandBriscoe · #6 04-01-2005, 11:34 PM

I think there is a good chance that Villains two-pair has been counterfeited by that J. If he 3 bets, he let's you know he has 88 or a J. This is when I call down...

jaxUp · #7 04-01-2005, 11:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I am not understanding your reasoning for a reraise on the turn and calling a 3-bet.

I would check-call to the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

6-handed play calls for more aggression than this. I agree with 3-betting the turn against a LAG-ish opponent. Against a known passive however, it would be time to start calling down.