bubble hand - what's your line?

[Scuba Chuck]

Does UTG stack affect your decision?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t590)
Hero (t848)
SB (t1385)
BB (t5177)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero .......[color]

[microbet]

UTG affected me, but not enough. I still pushed. Maybe a bad play. Last chance at any fold equity. UTG stack is not enough smaller than mine to let a decent hand go.

[TheUsher]

This is one of those REAL borderline decisions, and playing with eastbay's program now shows me just how much it is. I used to always push here but now you really have to take players reads into account.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
This is one of those REAL borderline decisions, and playing with eastbay's program now shows me just how much it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have access to Eastbay's program?

And, could you post the results in say over an hour or two...

[TheUsher]

It's my handy dandy new toy. I'll play it with constantly and won't leave home without it for the next day or so. Then I'll get something else. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Sure, I'll post the results later but I'll give eastbay a chance to post a screenshot first to be fair.

[Drac]

I voted fold. Two things I take into account: The size of UTG's stack and the fact that BB will almost certainly call me with any hand getting over 1.75 to 1 on his call, having tons of chips to risk and with the ability to knock out a player. You also have to get by the SB who will probably only call with a monster but still a (much smaller) factor in my decision. Of course I'm running into a streak of bubble finishes so I'm a complete wuss at this point.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
It's my handy dandy new toy. I'll play it with constantly and won't leave home without it for the next day or so. Then I'll get something else. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Sure, I'll post the results later but I'll give eastbay a chance to post a screenshot first to be fair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, it's been a while and no one's put this up, so forgive me if I'm stealing anyone's thunder.

I put SB on a fairly tight call: TT+, AQs+, AKo. BB I loosened up to 44, A7s, A9o, KJs.

If you buy those ranges, this puts the fold EV at 19.1% and the Push EV at 20.5% -- a clear push.

[Scuba Chuck]

David, try rerunning the numbers with any two cards. Or at least with the top 50% of hands. Then rerun the numbers. I won't have time to do this until this afternoon if you can't. with 1.75:1 odds, and such a puny stack by hero, your hand range is WAY too tight.

Scuba

[SuitedPair]

I voted fold, but I’m still young in my poker career (only 91 SNGs). My gut said push, but after thinking about it, I think I would fold. But without time to think about it at the table, it's likely I would have pushed.

If I’m BS, I’m calling with almost anything. I’m only risking 650 chips to win 1,150, so 1.7 on my money. I’d new to this, but doesn’t that mean that I only need 33% chance of winning to make it EV+? And if I lose my stack is still 2x second place. Also, by showing down a non-premium hand, it should cause others to think twice about stealing against me.

I would rather wait until BS was UTG or UTG+1 and folded and push against the other two stacks with a top 50% hand.

This could be a major leak in my game. I consider my play with a big stack to my left the biggest problem in my game.

[Scuba Chuck]

OK, I purposely didn't add any reads into this decision.

I should repost the poll, but I won't. When BS was not in the BB, he was VP$IP on every hand. How does that affect your decision?