Outs

mmbapmashida · #1 03-30-2005, 05:41 PM

If I have 23 outs on the flop, would that make me about 50% to hit one of them (not to win the hand, just to hit). This is assuming I've seen 5 cards (my own two, and the flop) so there are 47 unknown cards left in the deck, 24 won't help me and 23 will...about even, right?

Saint_D · #2 03-30-2005, 05:49 PM

Poker Odds Card

That said, what the hell hand do you have that's got 23 outs? If you really have 23 outs to a lock, get as much money in the pot as you can.

-D

P.S. do a search on the board for "outs" and "pot odds". There is so much information here already that this post is not likely to get any responses from anyone else but me. I am not sure what possesed me.

sthief · #3 03-30-2005, 05:52 PM

P(hitting) = 1 - P(not hitting) = 1 - [(47-x)/47][(46-x)/46] where x is # of outs

in this case it's about 75%. you have 2 shots to hit drawing to .5

Jeebus · #4 03-30-2005, 07:56 PM

maybe i missed out in probability class but since you can hit either the turn or the river, wouldn't it be
23/47 + 23/46 not 23/47 * 23/46. The or means a plus sign while an and such as I have to hit the three and the four would be multiplied.
Or am I just wrong?

pfkaok · #5 03-30-2005, 08:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
wouldn't it be 23/47 + 23/46 not 23/47 * 23/46.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, Sthief is right, b/c you have to take the chanes that you don't hit it on either card, then subtract it from one... you can't just add the 2 together.

Otherwise, if you had 30 outs you could hit, and 2 shots to hit it, then you'd say 30/47 + 30/46 which is much bigger than 1, and obviously you don't have over 100% chance of hitting it when you have 2 cardds.

New001 · #6 03-30-2005, 08:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That said, what the hell hand do you have that's got 23 outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] against 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Flop comes Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Now every heart except for the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], any ace, any queen, any jack, any ten, and any 9 makes your hand best (23 outs). As far as I know, that should be the most you can possibly have against a made hand.