When you know you are beaten, do you fold? (example hand)

mithong · #1 03-29-2005, 01:58 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, 2 folds, Hero raises, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO folds.

Flop: (9.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

River: (10.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

i had a really good read on this guy as a loose passive player, so when he check raised me on the turn, i KNEW he had caught two pair... but should I have still just called down? or should i have folded there

i was SURE he had two pair

and lets say the pot was reduced, like 6 bb... could i have folded then?

davelin · #2 03-29-2005, 02:00 PM

He didn't check/raise you and you have outs to beat two-pair. If you're over 90% sure that you're beaten, sure fold the river.

gvibes · #3 03-29-2005, 02:01 PM

I don't think it would be horrible advice to say that you should never fold in this situation (TPTK, 2 or 3 way). Your read will just never be that good.

If this player is super-passive, then this line is fine.

zram21 · #4 03-29-2005, 02:02 PM

He didn't check-raise you on the turn. You led and he raised. There is no way I am folding this to his turn raise. You played it fine.

KaiShin · #5 03-29-2005, 02:02 PM

Did I miss the CR somewhere? You lead the turn.

Even if he has 2 pair, you're getting correct odds to call the turn and pass him. River fold is OK if your read is solid.

zram21 · #6 03-29-2005, 02:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He didn't check/raise you and you have outs to beat two-pair. If you're over 90% sure that you're beaten, sure fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very important to keep in mind though that it is HIGHLY unlikely your read could have been good enough to be 90% certain you were beat.

Wetdog · #7 03-29-2005, 03:25 PM

What I'm seeing is that he came alive when the deuce hit the board. My read is pocket deuces. You have no outs then, since your 3rd K would give him the boat. What else could he have? OK, he could have K2, Q2 or maybe 82 (probably not 82). This gives you 3A's, 2Ks or 2Qs (whichever one he doesn't have) and 3 8's for a total of 8 outs. You have pot odds to call, so go ahead.

The river was no help, so I'm laying it down also.

But, if villain has the river card that makes our 2 pair and also makes his boat, we're screwed. This one's tough.

Delphin · #8 03-29-2005, 03:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's very important to keep in mind though that it is HIGHLY unlikely your read could have been good enough to be 90% certain you were beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad somebody else posted this question, because I've been having trouble with this since reading SSHE. Playing Party $.5/$1, I run into many players who will never raise preflop without AA-JJ and will never bet or raise postflop with less than two pair. After say 75-100 hands of observing this behavior for a particular player, can I make these types of laydowns?

I will post a few hands in this thread later to give examples of what I'm talking about, but typically it is either:

(1) Extremely passive postflop player bets out on the flop or raises my flop bet and I have top or middle pair with a good / top kicker. I may have to call the flop bet because I have some outs to improve if they have only a small two pair. If they bet out again on the turn I often no longer have the odds to call. I have called turn and river bets several times only to wonder why I didn't just fold the turn because I knew they had a better hand, but the large pot advice is always telling me to call it down because you can't ever be sure enough to know you aren't folding a winner.

(2) Extremely passive player wakes up on the turn with a bet / raise on a otherwise unscary looking turn card. Because they check/call so regularly, this play screams "I just made an ugly two pair" or "I just made a set". Can I fold to this bet/raise if I don't have odds to outdraw the hand I know they have? This one seems even more obvious than the first situation, yet I only hear people say that you can't fold any reasonable hand in a large pot.

I'm not talking about an aggressive postflop player who was waiting for a safe turn card before making his move. This is a passive player who regularly shows down top pair top kicker or even overpairs after check/calling on all three streets and only bets when they hit two pair, a set, a straight, or a flush. There seems to be a large number of players who play this way, and I don't want to give them extra bets when I have only top pair top kicker against them.

Anyone regularly make folds in situations like these, or do you always have to call it down just in case? Are you wrong enough to justify it?

snowlarbear · #9 03-29-2005, 05:23 PM

CR on the river, i think he means?

detruncate · #10 03-29-2005, 05:34 PM

Don't fold the turn. You have outs vs 2-pair. If you're sure the raise is legit, fold the river UI. However, you need a very good read. LP-P ish stats after a few tens of hands isn't enough -- generally passive players are sometimes deceptively aggressive since they do a whole whack of calling (which has a big impact on their aggression stats). I'd be relying on a read that went beyond numbers if I planned to fold.

Be more inclined to pay off than to fold when the pot is decently large. The K and Q on board + your pf call makes me pretty sure he's not just taking a shot, so I can see folding if you have a very good read and the pot is small... but I wouldn't do it often in this situation.