Bubble Decision

[Donating]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t500 (4 handed) converter

Button (t3805)
SB (t2070)
BB (t1975)
Hero (t2150)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

[gorgeous]

Obviously this is a push or fold situation, and I would push. By simple gap concept reasoning, you're gonna get everyone to lay down marginal hands. I don't see how the Button could call, since his most +EV play is to let you steal just this once and then continue to run over the table. I don't see the SB and BB calling with hands weaker than AA/KK/QQ/AK, since they still have a chance of placing ITM and would be knocked out if they called and lost.. so push

[lastchance]

POOOSH.

[curtains]

Move allin, no question in my mind. Of course you'd like to avoid confrontations and watch other players get eliminated, but you don't have that luxury here. Your hand is too strong 4 way, your fold equity is too high, the money in the pot is very useful to you and your opponents chip stacks are too similar to yours to expect to just fold your way into the money.

[Donating]

Well, I used to think that this was an easy push, but after I went back and thought about it I am not so sure. I really feel like I have almost no fold equity here. By that I mean that the vast majority of players will not lay down a hand that is better than mine. The range of hands that I expect to get called by with some regularity are any A, any pair, and the occasional KQ. This is definitely too wide of a range for people that post on here to call with, but they are a very small subset of the PP player population.

If I fold, I have 4 hands to play where I still have relatively equivalent fold equity. After that, I have another 4+ hands to find a hand or see if someone else gets knocked out. This is a decent amount of play given the stack sizes and blind level. I think that the situation changes if I have -500 chips (easy push) or +1,000 chips (easier fold). If people think that I am getting better hands to fold here, then I think it is an easy push – but I am not so sure that this is the case. BTW, where do you draw the line KTo, K9s, QJs…

[curtains]

You have a huge amount of fold equity. Almost all opponents at any level will fold over 50% of the time.

[valenzuela]

I push, button would be retarded to call, hes the cool chip-leader , hey how about we risk 4th place with Q9s when we can run over the table in the next hand.

[Donating]

[ QUOTE ]

You have a huge amount of fold equity. Almost all opponents at any level will fold over 50% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

50% of all hands or hands that are ahead of me – as this is all that I am concerned about. Put another way, what is the chance that one of the three players I am up against wakes up with a hand in the calling range.

Here is another way to think about it: Am I pushing because I have a lot of fold equity or because my hand is too strong not to. My hand rates to be a dog against any range of hands that reasonably calls me here (not to mention being dominated). This is my point – that my hand is not strong at all when considering what I am likely to be up against. If I am pushing because of my fold equity, (1) Is there a need for me to do so given my chip count? and (2) What is the difference between pushing with KJs and any two (likely to be live cards)? If I was going to push, wouldn’t it be better to do so with a hand like JTs, where I am at least a small favorite against a number of calling hands?

[curtains]

Assuming you will always be called by any hand better than yours (Which you almost surely wont be), then someone will call about 51% of the time, based on my quick math. Note that you will win about 42% of the time when they call you as well.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]

Assuming you will always be called by any hand better than yours (Which you almost surely wont be), then someone will call about 51% of the time, based on my quick math. Note that you will win about 42% of the time when they call you as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

every couple of days it seems like it's necessary that someone explain a) that your opponents don't know exactly what your cards are b) that they will not always call with exactly the set of hands that beats you c) that they will often call with hands that you beat d) that hands that beat a hand like KJs are in fact rare e) that the worst hand sometimes wins.

there's some others, but those are those are the ones that are so nicely wrapped up in curtains' post.

citanul