Steal Called - now what?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

'Stars $30 + 3 2-table. 6 left, 75/150, I'm 2nd in chips with 5025.

I get 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the CO.

Folded to me, I raise to 450, Button (9189) calls, blinds fold. (pot=1125)

Flop: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet 750, button calls (2625)

Turn: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

OK, the only person who can bust me called my preflop raise and smooth-called about 9% of his stack on a coordinated board. I have turned 2-pair.

What's your read on the button? (my impression - since he's had a big stack, he has liked to see flops and try to outplay opponents later in the hand - successfully so far)

Who bets? How much? What do you do if raised?

My decisions, rationale, and results later.

[Rolen]

I'm putting him on something like AT, KT, JT. On the flop he figures gutshot + two overcards are good enough to call 2/3 of pot. He also is planning to bet the river if you check behind him whether he hits or not, so I check the turn and let him bluff the river.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

No offense, but that sounds like wishful thinking. Ignoring the board and action, are you saying that the entire range of hands you'd put him on flat-calling preflop is AT, KT, JT?

[Rolen]

Nope, but that's what i'm putting him on now.

He doesn't check/call an overpair on the flop
He doesn't call the flop with just overcards
He doesn't check/call the flop with the big stack and an open-ended straight draw
He doesn't check/call the flop with a set (unless he's stupid)
He *does* check/call the flop with some sort of marginal drawing hand.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

He doesn't check/call the flop with a set (unless he's stupid)

Explain this point. Why is it dangerous to give a preflop raiser a free card here?

(the corrolary is why do we assume this guy isn't stupid) [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Rolen]

because you have to have one of three cards for some sort of draw, a 5, 7 or T. Since you could be on a steal you could have any.

If we don't assume he's capable of rational play then there's no point in trying to put him on a hand cause he could have 23o!

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

No. My point is *if* he is rational, he'll put a preflop raiser on a range of hands, of which a straight or atraight draw are a small portion. If I reverse roles and have 99-66, I don't see that as a dangerous to my set (and if I have 77, I'll still call). Sure he might be stealing with any 2, but you put a reasonable probability on that.

I would smooth-call that flop bet with a set almost 100% of the time (not if there was a flush draw there, too).

BTW, the thing about why do we assume he's not stupid - that was humor.

[Rolen]

Oh, I see, sorry, being English I don't have a sense of humor

After your bet on the flop, I really don't see a call from a set. From his point of view, he thinks that against the big stack you're gonna give up any steal if you have nothing on the turn, so why not raise the pot on the flop? If you've got something you'll call the flop bet, and if not, you won't be giving him any more of your money anyway. I think he'd value-raise your flop bet with a set here.

Dying to know what he actually had now

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I think you're missing one thing. He has position. I bet the flop and he called.

Since nobody else has replied, here's what I was thinking.

1) I think I'm one of the better players left at the table.
2) Any reasonable bet I make on the turn basically commits all my chips.
3) If he called the flop based on putting me on AK, he won't call a bet on the turn if he has nothing.
4) How often does he fold JJ or TT to a good sized bet? (I think those are very reasonable hands for a big stack to call preflop with position). If he folds them too often, this lowers my expectation.

My conclusion was that I was likely about a 6:5 dog to the range of hands he would play like this (which makes committing my entire stack +CEV), thus the question is, do I risk my tournament life on this hand when I can fold and still have over 20 BB in my stack.

Sorry - can't tell you what he had. I checked, he bet 2100 and I folded.

I ended up finishing 3rd (he went out on the bubble).

[microbet]

He may well have you beat, but, with the 5 on the turn your check looks like you made the straight as much as anything else.

If he has the straight he wouldn't want to chase you off. If he has trips, well, either you have the straight or you don't. If you don't, you probably weren't on a straight draw and he doesn't have to protect. If you do, you will win. Either way, why should he bet big on the turn?

Maybe he had the best hand and just decided it was time to take it down, but I think it is more likely he was making a move or thought he had the best hand with one pair.