Do you let this hand go?

[Scuba Chuck]

$30 + 3 hand. Two pair vs. a 3 suited flop.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (3 handed) converter

Button (t1185)
SB (t4675)
Hero (t2140)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t200) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t200</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t1000</font>, Hero ......

Final Pot: t1400

[nWirb]

He might have a spade here, he might not.
Even though the blinds are pretty small here I think a bet of 200 here looks pretty weak for villian with his monster stack.
He might put you on third button or middle pair or peraphs a flush draw or even a steal.
I'd put villian on TPGK, a flush draw or even a steal here.
Of course he might have the flush, but would he really have played it this fast then? Who checkraises you 2.5 x the pot with a made flush 3 handed? He might do this with 34S scared of you having a high spade in hand but what are the odds of this?

I'd push and hope for the best, the only real hand I would be scared of is trips of deuces. Laying down TTP 3 handed seems very weak, I'd say gamble for first, settle for third.
Move in on him and make it hard for him to call with just a weak flush draw or TPGK.

[TheUsher]

Full table I've lost many a chip live with top 2/set type of hands on 3flush flops, but since this is a SNG 3handed I'd grit my teeth, call, and hope a spade doesn't fall. You're 2 to 1 to win against the As and a slight favorite over As+T/7/2 (pair) so it's a must call.

[curtains]

I think that it's a very easy allin. It's pretty unlikely you are behind here in a 3 handed game. Good chances you are up against one spade and are a 60-70% favorite.

[Scuba Chuck]

I wanted to do some math on this hand, that's why I posted it. I used this poker calculator

Let's make some sample assumptions to see how I stand:

Example 1: Villain has J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero is a 54.0% favorite

Example 2: Villain has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero is a 52.6% favorite

Example 3: Villain has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero is a 64.4% favorite

So essentially, I am a 2:1 favorite if villain has any spade. If villain has any spade, and has paired the board, then it's a coinflip.

I am sort of rambling here. I am very interested in making sure I am identifying edges I don't want to miss as I move to higher buyins. From a probability standpoint, is it correct, perhaps, to assume here that 50% of the time, it's a coinflip, and 50% of the time, I'm a 2:1 favorite, making this like a 60% edge?

His allin bet to me is more of a sign of weakness, specifically it feels like he's protecting something he has, or is worth a draw to him (especially considering the probability that I might fold).

[microbet]

I voted the way I wanted to this time, eventhough you tried to trick me by titling the post 'Do you let this hand go?' and titling the poll 'Do you make this call?'

Make the call. He is probably either protecting a pair or betting one spade.

[valenzuela]

I call, he has a high spade...and even if he has the flush ure not drawind dead.

[kspade]

[ QUOTE ]
His allin bet to me is more of a sign of weakness, specifically it feels like he's protecting something he has, or is worth a draw to him (especially considering the probability that I might fold).

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't he have 4.5K in chips and bets 1K? How is he all in? I didn't vote because I move all in, not calling or folding, which were the only two poll options.

[networkman]

Hmmm, I push here.
I'm interested to know what the callers do if a spade hits on the turn?

[dfscott]

His pre-flop call makes me wonder if maybe he has a monster and is looking for action. I think the c/r is him trying to protect his big overpair on a scary flop. I think he just smooth calls with the made flush.