Third street hand eval

[Valentyn]

I've been working on smarter third street hand evaluation; would be grateful for thoughts from the folks on here.

$2/$4 7-card Stud, ante ($.25).

3rd Street

Seat 0: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]__folds
Seat 2: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]__brings in for $1__folds
Seat 3: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]__raises
Seat 4: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]__folds
Hero: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]__folds

Correct play, or should have stuck with it?

[Roland]

I’d say correct fold since so many cards that could help your hand are dead. If that hand is live you should play though. In that case you might even want to re-raise to get it heads-up.

[CarlosChadha]

Hi Valentyn,

As you will probably read in any stud book, folding a big pair without an overcard kicker to an early position raise(and therefore not likely to be a steal) by a bigger card is almost always correct in a low or medium ante game. This is especially true because there is a jack behind you in this case; if he calls you might be beaten in both places. If you were the initial raiser and you got reraised by the K, a call on 3rd (and again on 4th unless the k caught a scare card) would now be correct with your str8 F kicker due to the higher pot odds from the 2 extra small bets in the pot. In these low ante games you should be looking for reasons not to get involved when you are not the agressor because the small starting pot size means you are giving up very little by folding often.

Regards,
Carlos

[CarlosChadha]

Hi Roland,

Good point about the dead cards. Since the K is not in a steal position, folding for the reasons I outlined in my other post is still probably correct, even with totally live cards. You are correct that a reraise might be a good idea *if* you think the K is on a steal AND you think that the guy with the J behind is tight enough to fold a pair of Jacks or a 3 flush to a double raise. At a 2/4 table it is unlikely this second condition will be meet due to general loose play. If everyone behind had lower upcards, a reraise is more likely to be successful.

Regards,
Carlos

[Roland]

OK, my first reply was admittedly much to vague. Maybe this makes more sense:

The Jack is a problem, yeah. He isn’t going to fold a pair of jacks here, of course. But many players in the 2/4 game are apt to play a bunch of high cards or similar crap even for a full bet, especially when it’s short handed, and that hurts you’re pair of tens significantly. By re-raising you can hopefully persuade him to fold a hand like AQJ.

That said, I think the decisive factor is how the game has been playing and how loose the guy with the K is. Many of the looser players will raise here, steal position or not. Also some play well on the later streets, and some play terrible. For instance, some people are bold enough to raise first in with just high cards, but then will check on 5th street if they don’t improve but still call you down with nothing.
On the other hand, if your opponent plays reasonably well, I have to agree folding is best.

On a different note, would you really consider this a low ante game? I think it’s more of a medium ante.

[CarlosChadha]

Hi Roland,

With your additional comments and the fact that you might get called down by a really loose player make a reraise seem better if you know your players well enough. One note is that I would probable check through 6th if my bets on 4th and 5th got called because there is a chance that I am not much a a favorite, to say a small pair with a big kicker (or even an under dog if my read is wrong and my oppoent is just being somewhat passive with a pair bigger than Ts) plus the added chance that my check will induce him to bluff the river (and thus I still get that bet if I am ahead, and save a bet when he draws out or has a better hand). Lastly, Neither of us mentioned that the size of the bring-in also matters: the larger the bring in, the more likely you should be to reraise.

I would consider an ante of 1/16 the big bet just boarder line small ante. The following distinctions are basically arbitrary, but I consider any ante lower than 1/15 the big bet to be "low" (most games at poker stars, paradise, the 5/10-20/40 games at party, and live games below 15/30 have this structure), any thing 1/10 of the big bet or higher (like at full tilt, party's lowest limit games, or live games above 30/60) to be "high" and everything else in between medium.

-Carlos

[SittingBull]

is considered low ante--Generally tighter play is correct. Medium ante..15% to 20% of SB--over 20% high ante--looser player is needed to survive--more ante stealing in required. For low ante,very little ante stealing is reqired.
There is greater risk in continuing with this hand in this low-limit ante game than folding. FOLDING was CORRECT!
HappyPokering,
SittingBull
[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Andy B]

If folding is wrong, it isn't wrong by much. I think you have to let this one go because the ante is small, several of your straight and flush cards are gone, and there's an over-card to your pair yet to act. Now if the guy with the King is one to continually get out of line when he has the highest up-card, you might re-raise to get it heads-up, but even there it probably isn't worth it because of the small ante.