Is this variance?

djj6835 · #1 03-20-2005, 04:49 AM

Hi
I don't post here much but I've been lurking for quite some time. Just to give you a little backround information, I have been playing the SNGs at Party for a couple of years now. I started out at the 10+1 and gradually worked my way up to the 50+5 games. I played just under 5000 50+5 before I cashed out all of my profits and stopped playing for about a month, at which point I redeposited a few hundred dollars. I once again worked that back up and was playing the 20+2s with an $1800 bankroll. It was just about a month ago that I hit a brick wall. I now have only about $500 left in my bankroll. That equates to a 60 buy-in drop over the course of just under 500 tournaments. I have had numerous bad runs before, but nothing like this. I am beginning to think that this is no longer variance, but that there is something that is seriously wrong with my game. I hope this doesnt come off as some sort of rant, but I'm basically wondering if this downswing is approaching something of statistical significance. Is it not possible for a winning player playing well to run this bad.If so, then I need to completely reevaluate my game. Thanks for any input.

The Yugoslavian · #2 03-20-2005, 04:59 AM

There is no way to tell from your paragraph of prose how much of your recent downswing is variance. Some of it surely is variance but some of it could also be tilt or mini-tilt or just bad play.

It is very possible for a winning player to run this bad. Gigabet has run worse I believe and he's clearly a *very* winning player.

It sounds to me that you hadn't run into the dark side of variance much before now.

What are your stats for the ~5000 $55 STTs that you played?? If you were winning at them and have not changed your game dramatically, you should certainly be beating the $22s.

I recommend that you turn your noise filter up and look more at your own HHs. Even better, compare the way you're playing now to how you played when beating the $55s.

60 buyin drops are part of the game. Just be thankful you're not playing limit.

Yugoslav

XChamp · #3 03-20-2005, 05:10 AM

I was down about $1,400 over 50,000 hands at NL$100 last year. I am still not sure if it was all variance or some bad play on my part. Regardless I am positive that I am winner at NL$100.

Good luck with that streak. Sounds pretty rough.

djj6835 · #4 03-20-2005, 05:18 AM

Thanks for the response Yugoslav. In ragards to my stats, I dont have actual stats for the 50+5, but using my total profits compared to approximate number of games, it appears that I had an ROI somewhere between 16% and 19%. It is also good to here that other winning players have experienced similar downswings.
I dont't have any HH for the 50+5 but I have noticed a general difference between how those frequently played out and how the 20+2 are currently playing. I freqently remeber that when I was running well at the 50s I would make it into the money without even having to showdown a single hand. This doesn't seem to the be the case anymore at all. I am frequently having to showdown and win 3 or 4 hands before making it into the money. Could this mean that I am missing some oppurtunities to pick up some chips earlier in the tournament. I generally play very tight early , and start to play at around level 4. I played the exact same way in the 50+5 and had a lot of success. Maybe it is some mini tilt or something, but it just doesnt seem at the moment that the same strategy that I had been using works anymore. I'll take a look at my next few games and see if I do anything that I wasn't doing previously. Thanks again for the response.

The Yugoslavian · #5 03-20-2005, 04:10 PM

From reading your posts it sound like your $22 run is just noise. One can certainly run card dead for 500 STTs. I agree it is a bit concerning consideration you were beating the $55s over so many STTs for such a high ROI. I'd just continue to build up and review my HHs consistently to make sure I wasn't tilting.

Yugoslav

raptor517 · #6 03-20-2005, 05:03 PM

ah, but yugo, i beg to differ. i broke even over 1100 sngs. bwahahahaha. i am positive i am a winning player, with at least a 10% roi. its possible my play turned bad somehow, but i do think that a downswing can last WAYY longer than people think. my brief sng career almost ended with that streak. thankfully, i got back on track, and am now dominating. holla [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

The Yugoslavian · #7 03-20-2005, 05:19 PM

Yeah, I know.....I'm trying to tell the OP that it's almost surely noise but it's still not a bad idea to check HHs and such (one should be doing this anyway, of course).

I also agree that a downswing can last longer than most people think. Let's all just be thankful we're not playing short handed limit when it happens, [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Yugoslav

1C5 · #8 03-20-2005, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
ah, but yugo, i beg to differ. i broke even over 1100 sngs. bwahahahaha. i am positive i am a winning player, with at least a 10% roi. its possible my play turned bad somehow, but i do think that a downswing can last WAYY longer than people think. my brief sng career almost ended with that streak. thankfully, i got back on track, and am now dominating. holla [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You say you got back on track, did you make any changes in your play or winning again just happened?

FishBurger · #9 03-20-2005, 07:27 PM

60 buyins at the $22s ($1320) is a pretty substantial drop. If I ever had that kind of drop I would definitely be examining my game. I think the most I have ever been down at the $22s is between 20-30 buyins, and during those downswings I made some mistakes that caused my downswings to be worse than they should have been.

johnny005 · #10 03-20-2005, 10:37 PM

I'm in the midst of a 15 buy in drop right now.... Man does it feel like a long time... but when you spend your whole day losing at sng's it really gets to you. I cant wait to go on one of these 30 losing streak :P
I feel you pain djj