Poker pulse, investing,and the recent DECLINE in online poker activity

DVO · #1 03-19-2005, 12:53 AM

Poker Pulse tracks the recent activity on the different poker sites, and is trying to establish themselves as a leading consultant for investors in this area. They were quoted in the oft-mentioned and influential Barron's article recently.

Check out their site if you haven't already.

Here's why I mention this. I recently bought some Sportingbet stock and have noticed the Poker Pulse numbers show about a 5-10% decline from 3 weeks ago for not only Paradise ( owned by Spoting bet) but also for Poker Stars & Party.

For instance, Party was averaging 40-44,000 ring and tourney players at peak periods two weeks ago; This week and last they are running 38-42K or so for comparable days.
Paradise & Stars show a similar pattern.

Obviously this is something I'm watching closely.

Through February, PokerPulse was showing 5% monthly growth
(down from 10% a few months ago). Now I see these March numbers, and start to harbor dark thoughts.

What do you think? In the steep climb up to this point, have there been minor blips like this along the way? or is the bubble bursting? Possibly there are seasonal aspects to this? ( It's warming up and people are inside less? I sort of doubt this.)

Interested in others' opinions on this recent trend, and whether it is meaningful.

eric5148 · #2 03-19-2005, 01:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Possibly there are seasonal aspects to this? ( It's warming up and people are inside less? I sort of doubt this.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the numbers from July/August and compare that with two months ago. Then you won't doubt this any more.

DWarrior · #3 03-19-2005, 01:49 AM

The last two weeks have been the general college spring break weeks, and I doubt many parents would appreciate having their kids spend their days gambling.

That could be a potential source of decline in ring games, since college kids account for a substancial part of the online poker community.

Dan Mezick · #4 03-19-2005, 03:25 AM

Poker probably hit a short-term peak in September-October of last year. Anything that grows this fast is expected to experience occasional consolidation on the way up.

There is no bubble. This is the real deal. Just look at how the game has matured as online poker has supplied seats to players via WSOP qualifiers, etc.

It's one huge poker ecosystem now and online poker is a huge part of it. It's not going to stop growing but the pace of growth may moderate periodically.

ctv1116 · #5 03-20-2005, 11:20 AM

The poker boom IS a bubble. I just can't see the average fish playing on Party when the WPT gets cancelled.

Alex/Mugaaz · #6 03-20-2005, 01:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The poker boom IS a bubble. I just can't see the average fish playing on Party when the WPT gets cancelled.

[/ QUOTE ] You're mostly right. the "poker boom" results solely on TV. When people stop watching it, then it will dry up.

People still watch Reality TV, and Poker is pretty much the best Reality TV has to offer. Poker will die down, and the smaller sites may go out of business. But there will always be plenty of poker. Poker will be mainstream for at least another 6-12 months.

wickedgoodtrader · #7 03-21-2005, 02:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The poker boom IS a bubble. I just can't see the average fish playing on Party when the WPT gets cancelled.

[/ QUOTE ]

Poker is far from a bubble. Frickin 10 year olds are playing now. Word of mouth is now over powering tv. If poker got booted from tv, it may slow growth a bit, but poker would continue to grow. It won't get booted from tv however because poker is too big too boot. It would be like bootin March Madness. If party has 40k players now, they will have 100k+ min in 5 years max.

BradleyT · #8 03-22-2005, 12:11 AM

2005 WSOP airings = party over 100K.

r3vbr · #9 03-22-2005, 01:51 PM

PokerPulse is a scam site
those figures are totally inacurate
they show PokerStars with 22k players in peak hours nowadays.. but the figure is actually 39k.
Totally off

LondonBroil · #10 03-22-2005, 02:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The poker boom IS a bubble. I just can't see the average fish playing on Party when the WPT gets cancelled.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is an entire Poker Channel coming out in the UK I believe and I would assume there will be one in the US shortly thereafter. I don't see poker growth stopping any time within the next 5 years.