Correct Call or Reckless Luck?????

[Leapus]

To All You Experts:

$5/10 PL Omaha/8 Hand as follows



Seat 3: tkoJoe ( $0 )
Seat 5: SCOOPTHELOOT ( $908 )
Seat 10: DrunknMasta ( $245.63 )
Seat 4: HERO ( $1701.75 )
Seat 6: db281081 ( $857 )
Seat 2: Excavation ( $1795.98 )
Seat 9: DJFEIN ( $1625.5 )
Seat 1: nmy12 ( $380 )
Seat 7: LANA75 ( $876.5 )
Seat 8: ENEMY ( $990 )

Excavation posts small blind [$5].
HERO posts big blind [$10].

Dealt to HERO [ 5s Ad 2c Jc ]

SCOOPTHELOOT folds.
db281081 folds.
LANA75 calls [$10].
ENEMY raises [$45].
DJFEIN calls [$45].
DrunknMasta folds.
Excavation calls [$40].
HERO calls [$35].
LANA75 calls [$35].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 3c, Td, 5h ]

Excavation checks.
HERO checks.
LANA75 checks.
ENEMY bets [$222].
DJFEIN folds.
Excavation calls [$222].
HERO calls [$222].
LANA75 calls [$222].

** Dealing Turn ** [ Jh ]

Excavation checks.
HERO checks.
LANA75 checks.
ENEMY is all-In [$723]
Excavation folds.

HERO ponders for a while then calls [$723].
LANA75 folds.

** Dealing River ** [ Ks ]

HERO [ 5s, Ad, 2c, Jc ] two pairs, jacks and fives.
ENEMY doesn't show [ As, 4h, Ah, 6c ] a pair of aces.
HERO wins $2556 from the main pot with two pairs, jacks and fives.
There was no qualifying low hand.

SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS:

I don't know if I can place ENEMY on only aces by the way it was played. I figured with 2-pair and the nut low draw that the call was justified. However, I could possibly only be playing for only a quarter of the low pot. Obviously the end result was superb! But was it reckless luck or a percentage play?

Please feel to comment on any and all of HERO's actions above.

Thanks in advance.

Leapus

[otnemem]

I don't know a whole lot about O8, but with my limited experience I'd say bad push by him bad call by you? I don't know...

Although a lot of people make significant preflop raises in O8 as long as they have an A-2 in their hand, so maybe it feels like he was pushing that low draw a little too hard...

[Yads]

I'm no expert, but what do you place him on with the way the hand was played? I either put him on Aces or an A2 and you have both beat, but I also don't play the 5/10 game, so I don't know what people there like to raise PF with. The only likely holding that ENEMY may have that has you in a bad spot is A2JT, maybe he has A2TT, but I'm not convinced.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
was it reckless luck or a percentage play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Leapus - I hesitate to reply because I'm not an "expert." I usually am sorry when I (innocently) get involved in a pot limit post. I thought you guys had your own forum for pot limit stuff - and was happy with that.

But since you're here and have my attention, if I've kept track of the bets correctly, it looks to me as though there's better than $1113 in the pot when Enemy goes all-in for $723.

(5+10+10+45+45+40+35+35+222+222+222+222 =1113)

If so, you're getting pot odds of 1836 to 723, or better than 2.5 to 1 to call.

Meanwhile, I think you're probably a favorite. You're certainly a favorite (about 3 to 2) to the hand Enemy actually held.

But of course, you don't know what cards Enemy holds when he goes all-in. Could be he has top set, in which case you'd be in trouble. But if we give Enemy a nice hand, say AA23 (but not the flush draw), I think your two pair is more than a two to one favorite over Enemy.

Thus unless Enemy has a set, rather than a pair of aces, you're getting enormously favorable odds to call.

I didn't run the sims for a set, so that I don't know what those odds would be, but you clearly wouldn't want to encounter top set here. Anyhow, barring top set, I think you're a big favorite.

Thus, in my humble opinion, good call.

Congratulations.

Buzz

[gergery]

I think your opponent played it fine, and your call was clearly EV+, but also clearly moderately not hugely EV positive.

He had 9-11 outs on flop to a very strong hand and might have had the best hand at that time (he almost certainly did in the actual hand)

He had tons of draws on turn -- nutflush, OESD and 2nd nut low and still might have had the best hand with overpair or had another 6 outs to redraw vs. 2 pair. In the actual hand he was close to even money with you and you thought some about folding.

There are only a few hands he can have where you’re not getting odds to call