Running hot?

[weevil]

I'm a 2/4 or 3/6 player online, and have done moderately well for myself, though I tend to blow most of my winnings on tournaments or ill-fated runs at 10/20 15/30. I have a hard time focusing while playing online, and find it hard to come up with solid reads on players I'm sitting with, though Poker Tracker and GT+ help a bit.

During the last month I've made four trips to Commerce in LA, and I'm kicking ass. I have no idea how to judge winning streaks in live play, but I don't feel like I'm getting smacked in the face by the deck, or keeping above the suckouts more than usual. My first big session came after five or six hours at 2/4, up $250. Average loose/passive low limit game, just had some decent cards that held up.

Then 10 hours at the 4/8, where I made $600. The game was very loose and somewhat aggressive preflop, more passive post. I only encountered one decent player the whole time, and he was playing far too agressively. Seemeded like he might be a decent aggro online player who couldn't adjust to this type of game; he dropped two racks in an hour on plays I wouldn't have blinked at online, but were obviously not appropriate against these players. I was getting better than average cards, but the game was seeing some massive pots (20-35BB), and I lost four 20BB+ pots on the turn and river.

Then seven or eight hours at the $6/12, up $650. Fairly tight, mildly aggro game, with several rocks and tags, one or two fish and the rest lap. In this game more than any other I've played I found myself reading players and cards dead on. I was able to make some huge semi-bluffs, some nice isolation plays.. stuff that never works in low limit games but did here. I was card dead for maybe half the time, and ran average cardwise the rest of the time with no suckouts. Another five hour 6/12 session up $400, same thing as before.

So up $1900 after about 30 hours. This is like 6BB/hr, which is more like 15/hr online when I'm playing 100+ hands/hr. Bottom line, I don't feel like I'm running hot, just average. Tiny sample size, granted, but is this considered a hot streak for most live players, or just running a tad on the plus side of variance? What is a hot streak like at these limits if the latter? For example, I'd say I was seeing 25% of the flops on average in the 6/12, winning 10-12% of my hands, and about 35% if I saw the flop. Compare that to 200+ hand 5/10 sessions I've had online winning 15-20% of hands, 45 if I saw the flop.

If I'm not deluding myself and 2-3/BB hr is possible at these limits, I don't see myself playing much online anymore. B&M is much more fun for me as an amateur, and I find myself far more able to keep my attention on the other players and able to utilize my table image to great benefit.

[shawn_p]

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Re: Running hot?

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Yes. White hot.

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I was getting better than average cards, but the game was seeing some massive pots (20-35BB), and I lost four 20BB+ pots on the turn and river.


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When you're in a game this good it is possible to go on a run when you can dodge all of the draws that are out against you. Eventually people will start to hit there gut shots, two out sets, and "ace" draws and take huge pots off you. Expect some losing sessions soon.

[lowroller]

To quote Lou Mannheim (Hal Holbrook) from the movie Wall Street:

"You're on a roll kid. Enjoy it while it lasts, cause it never does."

The low limit Commerce is a game where you can run good for quite a while...and then hit the wall...hard.

The above poster is correct. Eventually, these other players will hit their draws and miracle cards, leaving you questioning your ability. This will then lead to a post titled "Running bad?".

Make the most of it while you can, and make the best of it when it cools. All you can do.

[weevil]

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"You're on a roll kid. Enjoy it while it lasts, cause it never does."


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I thought I mentioned I was a reasonably seasoned online player. I've been on hot and cold streaks.

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The low limit Commerce is a game where you can run good for quite a while...and then hit the wall...hard.

The above poster is correct. Eventually, these other players will hit their draws and miracle cards, leaving you questioning your ability. This will then lead to a post titled "Running bad?".


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I was looking more for accounts from other commerce/live casino players at what kind of streaks they've had. And also, the 6/12 games I played in were more like 3/6 party games, except less stupid/aggro. There were a handful of decent/tricky players, and only a few loose/passive chasers. So naturally suckouts are going to be a less common occurence. Is this an atypical lineup for the common 6/12 commerce? The two times I played the lineups were basically the same..

[Thythe]

I think you're just god's gift to poker.

[Moozh]

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"You're on a roll kid. Enjoy it while it lasts, cause it never does."


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I thought I mentioned I was a reasonably seasoned online player. I've been on hot and cold streaks.

[ QUOTE ]

The low limit Commerce is a game where you can run good for quite a while...and then hit the wall...hard.

The above poster is correct. Eventually, these other players will hit their draws and miracle cards, leaving you questioning your ability. This will then lead to a post titled "Running bad?".


[/ QUOTE ]

I was looking more for accounts from other commerce/live casino players at what kind of streaks they've had. And also, the 6/12 games I played in were more like 3/6 party games, except less stupid/aggro. There were a handful of decent/tricky players, and only a few loose/passive chasers. So naturally suckouts are going to be a less common occurence. Is this an atypical lineup for the common 6/12 commerce? The two times I played the lineups were basically the same..

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You: Am I running hot?

Them: Yes, you are running hot.

You: That's not what I am asking...

You (continuing): I've played 6/12 twice and I think less suckouts actually means it's more likely that I can maintain a great winrate.