Here's one hand Curtains

Jman28 · #1 03-16-2005, 06:36 AM

Again, this is a $100+9. Last HH of the night, sorry.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) converter

MP1 (t1775)
MP2 (t1255)
MP3 (t670)
CO (t870)
Button (t2675)
SB (t805)
Hero (t1035)
UTG (t425)
UTG+1 (t490)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises to t250, 3 folds, Button calls t250, 2 folds, Hero ...

SuitedSixes · #2 03-16-2005, 06:38 AM

Fold. I am confident that Curtains will agree with me on this one.

curtains · #3 03-16-2005, 06:38 AM

I think I'd call....but I don't have a big problem with folding.

curtains · #4 03-16-2005, 06:40 AM

good call SS!

I don't feel like the difference between 1030 and 880 is THAT great. Of course it's important, but we are getting a cheap shot here at having a huge stack. The pot odds are definitely in our favor here.

However I admit my decision is very close, and if the raise was even 275-300 it may change my mind. Also I'm not that confident that calling is the proper play, however I think I'd call.

johnnybeef · #5 03-16-2005, 06:41 AM

fold. after reviewing all of the big pots that i have lost tonight (probably close to 30) i have respotted a leak...going over top of people with marginal hands. when stack sizes are this small relative to the blinds, a bet less than a push is an action craver.

Jman28 · #6 03-16-2005, 06:41 AM

What do you guys think of pushing? (See 'sandwich effect' in HOH)

curtains · #7 03-16-2005, 06:45 AM

I hate pushing. Don't try any of this sandwich crap at a $100 sit and go when someone has bet $250 and gotten a cold caller.

Jman28 · #8 03-16-2005, 06:53 AM

If they fold 30% of the time, and I win 40% of the time called (assuming 1 caller),

.3 * 650 = +195 (they fold)

.7 * .4 * 1435 = +401.8 (they call and I win)

.7 * .6 * - 935 = -392.7 (they call and I lose)

EV of push = 204.1

I simplified this to not include when I get two callers, and I pulled the percentages out of my ass, but it's just to show a point. Also, this is Chip EV only.

What #s would you find more reasonable?

-Jman28

Jman28 · #9 03-16-2005, 06:54 AM

I'm going to sleep now. Discuss without me.

curtains · #10 03-16-2005, 06:56 AM

I don't know I just can't believe these guys ever fold after voluntarily putting 250 chips in to call a raise. Of course they will sometimes but I don't want to bet on it. Also I'm not quite sure you will win 40% if called, but thats debatable.

If your numbers are accurate then moving allin should be fine, but it just feels very very icky to me. Btw have to go to bed in a few minutes!!