Interesting bubble situation, your move and thoughts?

[1C5]

At what point do you settle for getting ITM? What would you do here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

BB (t6460)
UTG (t30)
Hero (t400)
SB (t810)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?


So...QQ, what do you do here? What about if you had a smaller pair or AK?

[byronkincaid]

Easy push imo.

[KyleH186]

Id probably push with 5s or higher here.

[Allinlife]

I think this is easy allin considering you are likely to be at least 2:1 favorite, and quite often 4:1 favorite when you move in with queens here.

[Jman28]

I had to think about this, but I'm gonna disagree with the first three replies and fold this.

Your chances for first are so small, and you will be called if you push.

You're almost a lock for third if you fold. Also, the difference between 2nd and 3rd spots is not as drastic as the difference between 3rd and 4th.

This can be figured out fairly well with some math, but on first glance, I think folding is the +$EV play.

-Jman28

[Jman28]

Okay, I'm checking the math on this.

If you fold, your equity is 23.09% of the prize pool. (kinda. 23.40% may be more accurate considering where the blinds are)

If you push, you will be called and will be up against a random hand for 900 chips.

If you lose, your equity is 0%. If you win, it's 27.51%.

Against a random hand, you win almost 80%. (79.925%)

Push Equity = .80 * 27.51 + .2 * 0 = 22.0%
Fold Equity = 23.09%

= Fold

If we were being even less generous, we could take into consideration that the SB could have a big hand (small chance) and push (small chance) and the fact that he will fold his 100 chips to the BB almost every hand that you don't push or the chance he'll go up against the BB with a big hand. These factors make it slightly more profitable to fold.

However, if you think there's a chance the BB folds his hand with 4.5:1 pot odds, then pushing becomes okay. This is only true against very specific opponents who either don't get pot odds or desperately want the bubble to stay alive.

In conclusion, my intuition was right. Fold.

-Jman28

[tiger7210]

This really is a fold with UTG being all in next hand. You will be called by the BB. In this postion AA's may be the only hand I play here.

[1C5]

PS, I pushed was called by the big stack with 99 and of course he hit his 3rd 9 on the flop to knock me out. lol

[byronkincaid]

If the blinds are going up next hand does it make a difference to the math?

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
If the blinds are going up next hand does it make a difference to the math?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. I would think it does slightly as it increases your chance to go out 4th, but I have no way of approximating this.

Anyone?

-Jman28