Bad Read, Bad Result

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Another tale of the Foxwoods Tuesday Night NL HE tourney.

Made the final table again. 99 players, top 10 paid. I'm in 3rd chip position, with the chip leader 2 to my right, and 2nd place to my immediate left. Things are going well, we knock out some players, and I've gotten to 19K (from 15K) and am now in second place, close behind chip leader who has fallen from 26K to 21K.

The chip leader has played only a few hands, and they have been quality hands each time they were shown. So, he's not getting out of line. However, he has recently stolen the blinds a couple of times, and I sense that he's starting to realize he can be much more of a bully if he wants.

Blinds are 500-1000 with 100 ante. Chip leader is first to act, and raises to 8000. A huge overraise. My read is that he has a good but marginal hand. I'm thinking something like AT or KQ or a small pair. I look down to see AhQh. I stare him down a bit, and my read is he wants me to fold. I raise all-in. Everyone else gets out of the way, and he goes into the think. Finally, he very reluctantly calls. I wish he had folded, because I'd rather win the 8K plus blinds for free than race for 11K more as a favorite, but oh well.

Wait a minute! He has AKo. I think I read his body language correctly, but misread his frame of mind. He was pretty sure I had a pair, so he didn't like his AK. Until he saw my hand, I don't think it occurred to him that he might have me dominated.

No lucky hits, and I'm out in 6th place.

Here's the more interesting hand for analysis.

One player gets to the final table with 700 out of something like 85,000. He was short and folded his way into the money. On the first hand, he's the small blind, so he has to ante 100 and post 500, leaving him with 100. You'd think that he's going to call no matter what. 10th pays $181, and 9th pays $272.

The big blind has a good stack of chips, at least 10-12K. UTG raises all-in to 1900, which means that the big blind should call with any two cards if he knows what he's doing. But he's new to me, and I sure don't know that he won't make a bad fold. Everyone folds to the SB, and he folds, saving his last 100 chip.

Do you think he should've folded?

Result was BB called with A3o, UTG had KQo, and the A3 won, moving the SB from 10th into 9th place (where I eliminated him the next hand with ATo).

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[ohkanada]

If the player has the ability to make a run if he wins the hand then he should throw in the 100. If he wins this hand he gets to 2800. Another double-up he is in reasonable shape.

If he is a newbie type or an occasional player he probably should fold and hope the BB wins and take the extra $90 bucks.

Ken Poklitar

[Mackie]

Did the SB even look at his hand? Considering if he calls for his last 100 he has to beat both UTG AND the BB to avoid going out in 10th. So what are the odds the BB will call and win? Don't know exactly, but I'd just make a fast guess of around 40%. If he folds, he has a 40% chance at 9th. If he calls and wins, he may get 9th right away if BB beat UTG and gets to keep playing with a small stack. Or he may call and win but UTG beats the BB and still has 2400 with both blinds to play. In other words, he could call, win, and still finish 10th. I don't know exactly how these possibilities offset each other, and I certainly wouldn't be able to calculate in my head all the possible scenarios, but if it were me I would want a hand with at least a 40% chance to beat 2 other hands, one of which is not a random hand. I would call with aces. I would muck trash. Anything else and I would have to evaluate my chances of making a comeback from a small stack. If the table was full of players playing too tight and the payout was top heavy (as they usually are) I would probably call and hope to stay alive to take a shot at a much bigger payday.

[The Prince]

Greg,

"Do you think he should've folded?"

To him, there is 1K in antes + 1100 in blinds and 600 by the raiser. He is getting 2700:100 so 27:1 in a likely 3 way pot. That's pretty good odds if you ask me.

But then UTG might bust first if he folds, giving him a whopping 91$ extra. And then again the BB might fold, which would be a disaster for the SB if he folds first.

Let's do some math. Please bear with me, I don't know myself if this is right. So please point out the mistakes (in the actual calcs or in the numbers assumed).

Let's assume that UTG has a better than average hand (he did raise UTG). SB folds and BB calls with any 2. Let's say that on average UTG is a 3:2 favorite. 40% of the time, UTG busts and our hero has won at least $ 272. His expectation can't be much higher than $280-290 (I think...) since he'll be all-in on the next hand for only the antes. Now 60% of the time, UTG wins and hero will most likely have to be content with $181 (for an expectation of $190-200).

His EV if he folds is (0.40*280) + (0.60*190)=$226

Let's see how he does if he plays. For the sake of it, let's say that UTG will win on average 40% of the time and that SB and BB will win 30% each. 70% of the time our SB hero busts out and wins $181. It does not matter if UTG busts out as well because he started with more chips and so he gets 9th place. 30% of the time when hero wins, he gets 2800 in chips. Of that 30%, 17% of the time UTG will win the side pot and survive, and 13% of the time he will bust, giving our hero an assured 9th place and the $272. But his expectation is higher, since he might double up again and is probably in the range of $350-$400, depending on what are the other stacks and how much the other places pay. When UTG wins the side pot, hero's expectation is probably around 9th place money ($272), again depending on what are the other stacks and how much the other places pay .

So his EV if he plays is estimated at (0.70*181) + (0.17*272)+(0.13*375)=$222

It's pretty darn close and since these are only estimates, then it probably does not matter either way. What can tilt the balance is if hero thinks that UTG is stronger and has a real hand (that would make him a much stronger favorite against the BB and against both of them) and also that the BB might fold. Also, if hero can accept the variance and if it is this close, then he should call regardless of his holding, since he has a better chance of a miracle comeback if he wins. And of course, it depends on his actual holding.

I'm glad you posted this Greg, because I think it's pretty shocking that folding is a viable option.

Regards,

[ohkanada]

I know in the past if two players bust out on the same hand at the Tuesday Foxwoods tourney, they would split 9th/10th. The reason I know is it happened to me and I had a bigger stack!

Ken Poklitar

[Mark Heide]

Greg,

I think this is a perfect example of how valuable a small stack can be. Futhermore, the SB made the correct move and folded. Pot odds are not an issue here because you have to look at what would happen if he called and won. If he won he would most likely be called on any hand that he played before it was the big blind where he would have to put in the rest there or in the small blind. So, he would have to play a hand against someone else that would at least give him better than average odds to win the hand.

Since, he didn't take any risks, he moved up the ladder to a payout increase of approximately 33%. Plus, if he did win the hand with the ante, he would have $900. This would allow him to wait again and hope two big stacks go at it, like in the first hand you mentioned.

I suggest reading Sklansky's TPFAP chapters on "The Last Table", "Just Out of The Money", and "All-In Strategy".

Good Luck

Mark

[deadbart]

[img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img]

[Mark Heide]

that Greg does not know these concepts, I'm sure he does. After I reread my post, I can see how it could be interpreted as be arogant. If this has offended anyone, please accept my appology.

Good Luck

Mark

[Mark Heide]

Greg,

I replyed to your post without reading the others. After reading "The Prince" which you suggested in your e-mail I came up with an answer that could possibly make this decision for the small blind easier.

First by doing nothing the small blind can gain a minimum of 32% equity of the $91 (the difference between 10th and 9th place) if the big blind has 2-3 offsuit. Furthermore, by having the chance to play one additional hand he gains approximately at the worst 15% of the $91 giving him at least a total of 47% equity of the $91. Therefore, it would be a close decision to play a hand in a three way pot that would give him only around a 47% chance.

I realize that there is a chance to win that pot which would be $2800. But, with the blinds at $1000 and $500 he will have a chance to do better, so if someone wants to make that close decision, I don't think it would be bad.

The only two hands the small blind could play without a doubt would be AA or KK. I ran several three way simulations and they were the only pairs that were between a 65% to 75% favorite.

The boarderline hands were AK, AQ, QQ, and JJ. These came close to being coin flip decisions. So, the real debate here is should you play these real close decisions to gain a slight edge with a bigger stack if you win?

The scenarios you have here is with $2800 you could even possibly move up to 8th place, or get lucky and double up. I am guessing that you should play these hands too, even though the possibility of moving up is only small, I believe that it may be a large enough gain to make the decision. Plus, the chance that you will have more chips to ante away and hope that two larger stacks go at each other.

I used the following match ups on Caro's Poker Probe to make these decisions:

SB: AsAc = 73.5% BB: 2d3h = 13.2% UTG: KcQd = 13.3%

SB: KsKh = 75.4% BB: 2d3h = 14.7% UTG: KcQd = 9.9%

SB: QsQh = 49.1% BB: 2d3h = 13.2% UTG: AcKd = 37.7%

SB: JsJc = 46.2% BB: 2d3h = 15.0% UTG: KcQd = 38.8%

SB: AsKh = 46.9% BB: 2d3h = 28.6% UTG: KcQd = 24.5%

I think you will notice that by having an additional hand play, even the worst hand, takes away value from the best hands.

Good Luck

Mark