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#1
03-08-2005, 03:14 PM
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do I have the odds to call here?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter
SB (t780) Hero (t1915) UTG (t2960) MP (t1160) Button :#A500AF(villian)/ (t1185) Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button :#A500AF(villian)/ calls t300, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero checks. Flop: (t750) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">villian bets t600</font>, Hero folds. Final Pot: t1350 Villian was a fairly tight player. I figured him for top pair or an overpair. 
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#3
03-08-2005, 03:22 PM
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Re: do I have the odds to call here?
No reason to call here. You're not getting good pot odds.
If you raise to make him bet the last 285 in his stack, you're getting 1635 to 885... 1.8 to 1. It's a -CEV bet. And even if the numbers were fudged a little to give you marginally positive CEV, you're still probably better off using your stack to steal blinds rather than calling off a third of it on a draw that will cripple you 2 out of 3 times.
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#4
03-08-2005, 03:40 PM
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Re: do I have the odds to call here?
His bet is essentially allin so I would consider it calling 885 to win 1435. This is less than 2 to 1. Hitting an 8 outer is 31.45% which is a little more than 2 to 1 against.
You could possibly have outs pairing your 8 or 9, but you also could have a lot of bad outs. If he has two hearts, you lose 2 outs. If he has AK, you lose 4 outs. If he has AK hearts you lose 5 outs. Also if he has hearts you could hit your outs and lose anyway. Even if you had pot odds, I think most people here would say you should fold. I wonder how many people would say you should have pushed preflop?
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#5
03-08-2005, 04:04 PM
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Re: do I have the odds to call here?
You played this the same way I would have.
[ QUOTE ] I wonder how many people would say you should have pushed preflop? [/ QUOTE ] With Button having less than 3xBB after his call here, it's very dangerous to push this hand. I would put button on two overcards (if so, he played this hand incorrectly), Ax, or setting a trap with AA/KK. Otherwise, IMO, button would have folded, or pushed to steal. And after seeing the flop, villain saw the two hearts, and decided he better get his chips in the middle. I put Button on AA or KK now.
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#7
03-08-2005, 05:17 PM
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Re: do I have the odds to call here?
[ QUOTE ]
I don't agree with checking postflop in this situation. The villain is going to fire away with anything and you have a pretty solid semi-bluffing hand. I would probably push here. [/ QUOTE ] Out of curiosity, with villain being so low stacked, what hands do you think he would have to have to call your allin bet here? IMO, it's extremely wide. It's time for him to gamble. Do you think your line here might be a leak?
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#8
03-08-2005, 05:27 PM
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Re: do I have the odds to call here?
Maybe,
I'm new to SNG's and post here because I like being shown where I potentially have leaks. Thinking back on the hand, even with 2 overs he would almost definitely call any bet you made. My line was probably overagrressive. Thanks for calling me out on it. -JP
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#9
03-08-2005, 05:31 PM
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Re: do I have the odds to call here?
[ QUOTE ]
Do you think your line here might be a leak? [/ QUOTE ] FWIW I think putting the villian these two hands, [ QUOTE ] I put Button on AA or KK now. [/ QUOTE ] Is a leak. Yugoslav PS I agree that the OP's line is fine.
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#10
03-08-2005, 05:35 PM
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Re: do I have the odds to call here?
[ QUOTE ]
I don't agree with checking postflop in this situation. The villain is going to fire away with anything and you have a pretty solid semi-bluffing hand. I would probably push here. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Out of curiosity, with villain being so low stacked, what hands do you think he would have to have to call your allin bet here? IMO, it's extremely wide. It's time for him to gamble. Do you think your line here might be a leak? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maybe, I'm new to SNG's and post here because I like being shown where I potentially have leaks. Thinking back on the hand, even with 2 overs he would almost definitely call any bet you made. My line was probably overagrressive. Thanks for calling me out on it. [/ QUOTE ] Look, game situations are always different. Pushing might win the pot here. The only hands that villain might have two overs with here are a slow played AA or KK. This flop is VERY coordinated, and scary for a slow played AA or KK. Do you see why he couldn't have any other two card over cards here? That being said, the ass end of a straight draw is even less attractive when you're semi-bluffing against a desperate stack.
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