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#1
03-07-2005, 03:41 AM
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Do I call this stop-n-go?
I'm wondering what you all might think the villian's range of hands could be. Here's the situation: UB $11 SNG, I haven't seen anything remarkable about this guy's play before (or at least I don't have any notes on him). Here's the hand (sorry, but I couldn't get Bison's converter to work for some reason):
(No Limit Hold'em Sit and Go) Powered by UltimateBet Started at 05/Mar/05 15:18:15 porksandwich is at seat 0 with 2480. dsmexecutive is at seat 1 with 2250. mystlina is at seat 3 with 1440. Arthur Dent is at seat 4 with 1140. Hero is at seat 5 with 2040. Kyman is at seat 9 with 650. The button is at seat 5. Kyman posts the small blind of 75. porksandwich posts the big blind of 150. porksandwich: -- -- dsmexecutive: -- -- mystlina: -- -- Arthur Dent: -- -- Hero: Td Tc Kyman: -- -- Pre-flop: dsmexecutive folds. mystlina folds. Arthur Dent folds. Big Tef raises to 525. Kyman folds. porksandwich calls. Flop (board: Ac 5s 5d): porksandwich bets 1125. Here's what I was thinking: Seems like a probable stop-n-go with a middle pair to me. I mean, why would someone with a strong ace put in a bet that large - it seems to scream to me "Get out of this pot!" So I'm about to re-raise all-in here expecting to see a mid pocket pair here. Anything else I should be thinking about? Anyone think that a strong ace or a lucky 5 bets this way? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] ts- 
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#3
03-07-2005, 01:33 PM
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Re: Do I call this stop-n-go?
Why? What do you think he has here?
Anyone else care to chime in? I could really use the help thinking through this play - thanks in advance. ts-
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#4
03-07-2005, 01:51 PM
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Re: Do I call this stop-n-go?
First thing. You can feel VERY confident that he doesn't have a 5.
Next, I think this was played poorly preflop. What would you have done had villain reraised you allin preflop? If your answer is call, then you should have just pushed preflop. Be careful playing against the big stack.
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#5
03-07-2005, 02:17 PM
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Re: Do I call this stop-n-go?
[ QUOTE ]
First thing. You can feel VERY confident that he doesn't have a 5. Next, I think this was played poorly preflop. What would you have done had villain reraised you allin preflop? If your answer is call, then you should have just pushed preflop. Be careful playing against the big stack. [/ QUOTE ] hey chuck, thanks for responding. i read this before you editted it - so i guess my question about whether you suggest limping with jacks in this spot is now moot. but, as to your question - no, i don't think i call an all-in pre-flop here because i figure to be in a flip or big dog situation. so then do you advocate limping and seeing a flop? this just seems a little weak-tight to me, but maybe that's more important than asking to play a big hand against one of the two stacks that have me covered. ts-
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#6
03-07-2005, 03:09 PM
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Re: Do I call this stop-n-go?
[ QUOTE ]
i read this before you editted it - so i guess my question about whether you suggest limping with jacks in this spot is now moot [/ QUOTE ] BTW, I assume you mean Tens (not Jacks) I changed my original post because I wanted to emphasize that your Preflop decision is where the mistake is, IMHO. I think that a limp is fine. If that's too weak tight for you, why not push (which is what I do)? The odds of the flop coming with scare cards (overcards) are high, so you don't want to see a flop, (or if you do, you want to see a cheap flop). Does that make sense? Scuba BTW, by my numbers, TT is still the 5th best starting hand, out of 169 total hand combinations. Top 3%.
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#8
03-07-2005, 03:31 PM
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Re: Do I call this stop-n-go?
I'd say the villian has AK, and the flop hit his hand. Why would he call a 525 bet with a mid-pair? That doesn't make any sense, unless his intention all along was to do a stop-and-go. But this doesn't seem an ideal situation to try a stop-and-go for the villian. He is the chip leader. Why risk that on such a play, especially when the Ace hit the board?
Your preflop bet looks like it could very easily be AK. So why isn't the villian scared that you have that? Why is he willing to risk his whole tournament on you not having AK? I think it's because he has AK himself. The villian's flop bet was the size of the pot. A very reasonable bet. He could have check/raised, but the pot was big enough. I think the villian was being straightforward, not tricky.
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#9
03-07-2005, 03:39 PM
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Re: Do I call this stop-n-go?
jcm, good points.
If villain knows how to effectively use the StopNGo, he's not using it from the ChipLeader position. It's most effective when you're a smaller/smallish stack. I don't know if I agree villain has AK, but I think A9+ is a the most likely possibility.
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