Tough call -- do you make it?

private joker · #1 03-06-2005, 11:08 PM

Mid-way through a 1-table Sit N Go. I'm 2nd in chips with about T1500. Blinds are 50/100

Folded to me on the button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

My image is very tight at this point (have tangled in very few pots) and both blinds are tight players, but BB is the chip leader with about T2000. It's a good opportunity for a steal, even if it's a transparent steal. I make it 300 to go.

SB folds, BB calls. BB is tight, but can be aggressive with a big stack. But he knows how I play and his call means he has a hand. He only bets made hands; never in hundreds of hands with him has he bet a draw.

Flop is J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Pot is 650

BB bets 150. I raise to 450 on a semi-bluff, hoping to take the pot down there -- but if not, I have 12 outs to a flush or straight.

BB pushes.

Ooops! Well, I've got 750 left and I'm getting about 2.5:1 on a call. Since I am very sure he is not on a flush draw, my heart outs are clean. If he has AJ I'm in decent shape, and if he has a set, I'm still in decent shape. (Poker calculator says that against a set I'm 34% to win the hand). If he does have a set, only the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a dirty out for me, so I have 11 clean, twice.

Do you call? As a 2:1 dog, I'm getting the right price on my draw -- but do I risk my tournament here? 3 get paid, and there are 5 left at this point.

EDIT: I'm actually a 3:1 dog if he has a set -- screwed up the poker calculations. That means I'm not getting the right price to call. But if he has AJ I'm about even money. Thoughts?

private joker · #2 03-06-2005, 11:33 PM

More calculations: 47% against AJ or an overpair with no hearts, 40% against a similar hand with one heart.

Those combined with the worst-case scenario of having a set and being 34% to win, (since I'm sure he isn't on a bigger flush draw), is 2.5:1 a price to call with? Or should I save my chips for a better hand?

Allinlife · #3 03-06-2005, 11:44 PM

call and it's not even close

you have nearly 50% pot equity most of the time, and given 2.5:1 pot odds. what more can you want!

also, if you fold now, you have too little chips to work with. I say GAMBOOL

p.s) It's much better to just push instead of rerasing less than pot on the flop

private joker · #4 03-07-2005, 02:08 AM

Cool. Yeah, I called. He had a set of 8s, and I didn't improve.

curtains · #5 03-07-2005, 02:44 AM

In these situations don't ever put yourself in a spot where you don't know if you should call or fold. You should pot committ yourself on the flop and just move allin.

lastchance · #6 03-07-2005, 03:30 AM

Yupz. Flat push the flop, get called by the set and lose.

Apathy · #7 03-07-2005, 05:20 AM

With a read as solid as you have here you should smooth call and fold to a big turn bet if you don't improve. Doesn't sound like this guy is folding to a raise. The way you played it though...easy call. Oh and I hate pushing vs the raise size you picked.

ilya · #8 03-07-2005, 05:38 AM

I really don't like your flop raise. You commit yourself to the pot though your solid read tells you that you're an underdog, but you don't put maximum pressure on your opponent. Either push if you think you have some folding equity, or call and see a turn if he'd almost certainly call the flop but will pay you off if you hit.

raptor517 · #9 03-07-2005, 06:39 AM

bingo. apathy is a step ahead of me im slow. since you say that he will never bet a draw, and only a made hand will he bet with, why even raise the flop hoping to 'take it down'. according to your read on this player, he is not bluffing. a flop call is great, make the call, see a turn cheap, and decide on the turn what your line is. 150 is a perfect amount to call. i hope they keep betting that way with a set of 8s. dont raise a tighty that doesnt bluff when you dont have a made hand [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] holla

curtains · #10 03-07-2005, 07:27 AM

Of course there is nothing wrong with calling the flop and then deciding what to do on the turn, however I think that if you are going to raise the flop, 450 is maybe the absolute worst amount to raise it to. I hate nothing more than putting yourself in a situation with a draw, where you have manipulated the pot so that if your opponent goes allin you have no idea what to do. Raising to 450 might do exactly that.