Go for the free card?

Aaron W. · #1 03-05-2005, 06:49 PM

SB seems to be a decent player. He's relatively tight and hasn't made any obviously bad errors. He has shown sane levels of agression.

Raise to try for a free card, or just call and not risk getting 3-bet.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, MP1 calls, Hero...

fluxrad · #2 03-05-2005, 06:52 PM

easy raise.

that is to say, you've got 9 outs to the nut flush, plus another 3 to the nut strait, 3-way even an ace might win this (call it 1 out?). So let's give you 13 outs.

Your equity here == teh hugeness!

MrWookie47 · #3 03-05-2005, 07:10 PM

Hell, even without the bonus gutshot and A outs, you've gotta pump this draw. You've got a 35% chance of hitting your flush while putting in only 33% of the money. Easy raise here, and re-evaluate if you still want the free card on the turn.

the_rookie · #4 03-05-2005, 07:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
easy raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

tytygoodnuts · #5 03-05-2005, 07:57 PM

When you got a strong draw like this don't be too concerned whether it gets 3 bet or not.

LoaferGee12 · #6 03-05-2005, 08:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Go for the free card?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

TheHybrid144 · #7 03-05-2005, 09:01 PM

Easy raise.

Your equity is really good here, and even if you get 3-bet, could it be profitable to do a "cap for a free card?"

Entity · #8 03-05-2005, 09:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
and even if you get 3-bet, could it be profitable to do a "cap for a free card?"

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably not. One thing to consider is that some of the time, while the free card would be nice, you'd actually rather them bet into you (and through the field), because when you hit you'll be more likely to get extra bets in.

That said, I'd raise here, but it's strictly equity reasons.

Rob

shadow29 · #9 03-05-2005, 09:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]

That said, I'd raise here, but it's strictly equity reasons.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very important. I hope everyone realizes that if you knew that you would not get a free card on the turn, your raise here is still correct.

When evaluating your hand, you should almost always be viewing in terms of equity and not something like "I hope I get a free card."

The likelihood that you get a free card enters into the equity evaluation, however, as does the likelihood that your opponent folds when you raise for value (fold equity).

I wish I could write more, this is really important stuff.

But the tables call.

I'll let others elaborate.

Aaron W. · #10 03-05-2005, 11:30 PM

Indeed, the free card was a bit of a red herring. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Though I must admit that it was the first thing that went through my head when I saw the flop and when villain bet into me and I almost acted with the free card being the primary focus.

I think Shadow said it best:

[ QUOTE ]
When evaluating your hand, you should almost always be viewing in terms of equity and not something like "I hope I get a free card."

[/ QUOTE ]

A free card would be a nice side effect of raising, but that's not the main purpose. If you think it's good to raise for equity against two players when you have a flush draw, how much better is it to raise with at least 3 more outs (non-heart jacks for the nut straight)?

Entity had an interesting thought which I had not considered before (in response to the question of capping):

[ QUOTE ]
One thing to consider is that some of the time, while the free card would be nice, you'd actually rather them bet into you (and through the field), because when you hit you'll be more likely to get extra bets in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against three players, is the 2% equity you're getting by capping the flop worth risking the opportunity to raise the field with the made hand? But what if we miss -- is it still worth it?

Case 1: We call the 3-bet, he leads on the turn.
-> 80% of the time, we miss and we pay 1 BB to see the river
-> 20% of the time, we hit and raise to earn an extra BB (2 total)
-> .8*(-1) + .2*(+1) = -.4

Case 2: We cap, he checks to us on the turn.
-> 80% of the time, we miss and we pay 1/2 BB to see the river
-> 20% of the time, we hit and bet but don't earn any extra BB (1 total)
-> .8*(-.5) = -.4

A wash?!? What does it mean? It means that you need to consider the other players in the hand (if any). How will they respond to a cap? Are they going to call a turn bet? How many of them are there?

It also means that neither play is significantly better than the other, which allows you to mix up your play without sacrificing anything at all (just like raising or calling/checking KQo from the blinds in a multiway pot - both are good options).

(Why are these EVs negative? Don't we have equity? Hmmmmm... Ponder it for yourself. The answer is not that hard.)

There's a little room for debate on the turn, but I think that taking the free card against this player would be best. I believe he is capable of check-raising, and I don't think he would bet-call into that flop against the preflop raise with nothing.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (6 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: (6 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7 BB