When you suspect your opponent was on a draw

thesharpie · #1 03-05-2005, 06:30 AM

Paradise Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, MP2 folds, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks.

River: (6 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ???

Final Pot: 6 BB

Check-call if he bets? It's possible the Q slowed him down if he actually had something on the flop, although the type of player who will check something like a pair of 8s on this turn probably isn't going to raise it on the flop.

Bizot · #2 03-05-2005, 06:34 AM

check/fold small pot who cares he was probably on a heart draw but not really worth it to find out in my opinion.

toss · #3 03-05-2005, 06:46 AM

I disagree, since he looks like the type of player who will call more often than he bets, I would bet the river and fold to a raise.

thesharpie · #4 03-05-2005, 06:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
check/fold small pot who cares he was probably on a heart draw but not really worth it to find out in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

A small pot, but we only have to be right less than 13% of the time to make calling correct. You say he's probably on a draw, I believe probably means more than 13% likely.

Edit: Added quote

thesharpie · #5 03-05-2005, 06:50 AM

I don't understand bet-folding here. Do you think he'll call with a hand worse than ours, or do you think he'll fold a better hand?

Bizot · #6 03-05-2005, 07:03 AM

you could do that also if you think he'll fold a small pair.

toss · #7 03-05-2005, 07:18 AM

Actually I screwed my reasoning up. Now that I think about it, a check/call would most likely be the best play here.

If we bet a worse hand will fold and a better hand will raise. For the same cost of betting we can showdown. So check/calling would most likely be the best play here given the read provided.

Nick Royale · #8 03-05-2005, 07:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
you could do that also if you think he'll fold a small pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
Which would be the same as folding a better hand. But I don't think he will...

Nick Royale · #9 03-05-2005, 07:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
check/fold small pot who cares he was probably on a heart draw but not really worth it to find out in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]
6BB = small? If you think that he's probably on a heart draw this is the worlds easiest call. I would check/call.