Weak Turn Fold?

[A_C_Slater]

Paradise Poker 1/2 full ring game.


UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, AC calls with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], MP3 calls, CO folds, Button raises, SB folds, BB folds, limpers call.


(11.5 SB)

5 players--- FLOP: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]


UTG+2 bets, MP1 calls, AC raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

(11 BB)
5 players--- TURN: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


UTG+2 bets, MP1 calls, AC folds.....?

[Vern]

Well played, next hand.

Vern

Standard Disclaimer, I am by no means an expert at any of this.

[AlmightyJay]

Why raise that flop?

[Vern]

To try and knock out all the players behind him and get it at least threeway? I think that is why he put the emote on the end of the action as it failed to get anyone to fold.

Vern

[AlmightyJay]

Hmm, this is definitely not a concept that I understand, then. I would actually lean towards folding - you have pot odds to draw to your 5-outer, but at the same time, one of your outs (A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) is tainted, and even if you are ahead, more cards can come that hurt you than help you. This just seems like a situation where you're either way behind (to the PF raiser, if he has a high pocket pair) or slightly ahead.

Now that I've spewed all that, please ream me and tell me why my thinking is wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Vern]

No reaming, honest.

Hero has second pair with an ace kicker. He really wants to get this down to at least 3 opponents and hopefully heads up. Folding is better than calling, but raising here is better since you can get the button on a cheap street and if you don't improve, check through the turn and see the river for 2SB on the flop. The fact that he failed to fold a single opponent means that hero either had no read on them, a bad read on them or they had a hand that beats his. On the turn hero is suffering from some serious reverse implied odds. He cannot hope to win even the small margin he needs to in order to make the call, cannot raise with any hope of taking the pot there, faces action behind him and still has to pay on the river to showdown. By raising the flop hero gets to know with much greater accuracy than if he just called on the flop and folding second pair, ace kicker in such a big pot could be the biggest mistake hero could make.

I think Raise/Fold are about equal, with raise just beating out fold by a little without reads or reads that opponents are weak and/or tight. I think fold is ahead of raise if you have a loose read on your opponents since you are not gonna reduce the number of opponents and only have second pair so you are suffering serious reverse implied odds. Calling here is not an option IMHO.

Vern

Standard Disclaimer, I am by no means an expert at any of this.

[A_C_Slater]

[ QUOTE ]
Why raise that flop?

[/ QUOTE ]


Because it's big (11SB) and I have middle pair/top kicker and likely 5 good outs which is better than 11 to 1, so since I have odds to call then raising is better because it can reduce the field and I may have the bettor and callers beat because they could be betting a flush/straight draw or even two overcards, or bottom pair, etc.


EDIT: And oh yeah, I can possibly get a free card on the turn if I choose to take it.

[PuckNPoker]

Im not sure I like the fold, I realze you could be drawing dead, but it costs you 1 BB to find out (if it is getting raised behind you), if it gets raised you are gone. You have odds for the draw if you arent dead and it is a big pot, I think I would stay in it if I can see the river for 1 bet.

[Vern]

I doubt it, there are still three players to act after him. Either he is getting raised or he is drawing dead. I don't see all those players cold calling two on the flop and the flop better betting the turn with a call in front still allowing my lone second pair with no draw to speak of being good.

Vern

Standard Disclaimer, I am by no means an expert at any of this.

[A_C_Slater]

After I fold, MP3 calls, button calls.


4 players----RIVER: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG+2 bets and everyone calls him again.

UTG+2 shows T9 and drags the pot. Someone else shows KT and God only knows what the other two are calling with here.