Bubble push

[J-Lo]

Was this push wrong? Was it wrong because of the shortness of the short stacks? What if he had AK? what if i had AK? What about a more meteocre hand like KQ? What range do u push? This guy seemed pretty tight thus far in terms of his playing standards-- but don't know if this tells anything about his calling standards. Would a minraise have been better? This is a $15+1 turbo-- deep down, i feel this move is very borderline, because my stack is so large... help me out here.

PokerStars Game #1298421753: Tournament #5782971, Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2005/03/03 - 15:09:34 (ET) Table '5782971 1' Seat #8 is the button Seat
2: Junaid0 (3815 in chips) Seat
4: RampantRak (5910 in chips) Seat
5: Gtownron1 (2085 in chips) Seat
8: DarTaylor (1690 in chips)
Junaid0: posts the ante 25
RampantRak: posts the ante 25
Gtownron1: posts the ante 25
DarTaylor: posts the ante 25
Junaid0: posts small blind 200
RampantRak: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Junaid0 [7d 7h]
Gtownron1: folds
DarTaylor: folds
Junaid0: raises 3390 to 3790 and is all-in
RampantRak: calls 3390
*** FLOP *** [Qc 5s Kh]
*** TURN *** [Qc 5s Kh] [Jd]
*** RIVER *** [Qc 5s Kh Jd] [Js]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Junaid0: shows [7d 7h] (two pair, Jacks and Sevens)
RampantRak: shows [Jh Jc] (four of a kind, Jacks) RampantRak collected 7680 from pot

[11t]

I never like pushing against the one stack that could bust me at the bubble. The other 2 stacks will be extremely short if the blinds get thru them and you can probably continue stealing off of them, however their calling standards are going to be decreasing along with their stacks so you will want to make sure you don't get caught with your hand in the cookie jar.

I think this is a fold, you cannot raise without breaking your stack and comitting yourself to the pot and he would push vs any raise you would make anyways. If this was against one of the short stacks I would push so fast it would give me carpal tunnel syndrome, however you are risking a call any time you have all your chips in the middle and 77 is not a hand that I like to get called with when I push. I mean it is a marginal favorite vs the majority of hands but none the less you will be outdrawn or walk into a bigger hand a good portion of the time.

Versus the one stack that can bust me I am going to avoid all conflict until we are in the money. I mean, if I knew he wouldnt call with big face cards (A/j,q,k and KQs possibly) I would push a wider array of hands however if he is prone to calling heads up without odds (like I see players doing all the time) I would just push JJ and up, that is it. Calling standards should always be higher than playing standards so you have to assume he won't call unless he wakes up to a monster, which he did. However, I still feel that folding here and pushing vs the short stacks is your best option.

I think you are missing a key concept, and that isn't what cards you have in your hand. There is so much more going on here than you having 77 and pushing. Just stay aggressive vs the short stacks and avoid conflict with the big stack.

Of course you don't have to listen to what I have to say. I mean, I would have folded JJ if I was him.

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
I never like pushing against the one stack that could bust me at the bubble. The other 2 stacks will be extremely short if the blinds get thru them and you can probably continue stealing off of them, however their calling standards are going to be decreasing along with their stacks so you will want to make sure you don't get caught with your hand in the cookie jar.

I think this is a fold, you cannot raise without breaking your stack and comitting yourself to the pot and he would push vs any raise you would make anyways. If this was against one of the short stacks I would push so fast it would give me carpal tunnel syndrome, however you are risking a call any time you have all your chips in the middle and 77 is not a hand that I like to get called with when I push. I mean it is a marginal favorite vs the majority of hands but none the less you will be outdrawn or walk into a bigger hand a good portion of the time.

Versus the one stack that can bust me I am going to avoid all conflict until we are in the money. I mean, if I knew he wouldnt call with big face cards (A/j,q,k and KQs possibly) I would push a wider array of hands however if he is prone to calling heads up without odds (like I see players doing all the time) I would just push JJ and up, that is it. Calling standards should always be higher than playing standards so you have to assume he won't call unless he wakes up to a monster, which he did. However, I still feel that folding here and pushing vs the short stacks is your best option.

I think you are missing a key concept, and that isn't what cards you have in your hand. There is so much more going on here than you having 77 and pushing. Just stay aggressive vs the short stacks and avoid conflict with the big stack.

Of course you don't have to listen to what I have to say. I mean, I would have folded JJ if I was him.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are saying u wouldn't call w/ JJ? Y not? Also, when stealing from the other 2 shorties-- how do u suggest i steal? Min raising or pushing? What if i try a steal w/ 77 and big stack comes over the top, which he can do w/ any 2... Are the times u have the big stack to your left -EV and it creates a situation where stealing w/ a medium stack is very dangerous.
I understand the concept of pushing into the big stack w/ a medium sized one. His calling standards SHOULD be quite high, because if he calls and wins/loses he is giving up a TON of equity to the smaller stacks-- or does this concept only apply when ITM?

[Zelcious]

Say your opponent will call with 99+ AT+ which I think is a reasonable asumption in this case then my new program says the following. Sorry for the bad layout.

Stack Size Bets Call With Stats
3815 3815 77 EV Call 0.303 Calls 91.393% Hold 12
5910 425 99+ AT+ EV Call 0.188 Calls 8.607% Hold 200
2085 25 EV Call -1.#IO Calls 0.000% Hold 0
1690 25 EV Call -1.#IO Calls 0.000% Hold 0

EV Fold 0.280 EV Push 0.293 No Call 91.393% Diff. 1.4%

Your push was ok in this case.

what about against 88+ only ?

Stack Size Bets Call With Stats
3815 3815 77 EV Call 0.303 Calls 96.146% Hold 12
5910 425 88+ EV Call 0.133 Calls 3.854% Hold 84
2085 25 EV Call -1.#IO Calls 0.000% Hold 0
1690 25 EV Call -1.#IO Calls 0.000% Hold 0

EV Fold 0.280 EV Push 0.297 No Call 96.146% Diff. 1.7%

Still ok.

So if you trust ICM and my programming skills you didn't make a misstake.

[Beavis68]

What would the BB call with here?

Any pair, AT+ and KQ?

73 pair combinations
64 AT+
16 KQ

That is 153 hands out of 1225 88% of the time you will pick up 700 chips. You are break even on the other 12%, seems like a good move to me.

I don't think folding JJ to the all-in is a bad move.

[curtains]

One thing that's for sure is I think folding JJ to the allin is wrong.

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
Say your opponent will call with 99+ AT+ which I think is a reasonable asumption in this case then my new program says the following. Sorry for the bad layout.

Stack Size Bets Call With Stats
3815 3815 77 EV Call 0.303 Calls 91.393% Hold 12
5910 425 99+ AT+ EV Call 0.188 Calls 8.607% Hold 200
2085 25 EV Call -1.#IO Calls 0.000% Hold 0
1690 25 EV Call -1.#IO Calls 0.000% Hold 0

EV Fold 0.280 EV Push 0.293 No Call 91.393% Diff. 1.4%

Your push was ok in this case.

what about against 88+ only ?

Stack Size Bets Call With Stats
3815 3815 77 EV Call 0.303 Calls 96.146% Hold 12
5910 425 88+ EV Call 0.133 Calls 3.854% Hold 84
2085 25 EV Call -1.#IO Calls 0.000% Hold 0
1690 25 EV Call -1.#IO Calls 0.000% Hold 0

EV Fold 0.280 EV Push 0.297 No Call 96.146% Diff. 1.7%

Still ok.

So if you trust ICM and my programming skills you didn't make a misstake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, you beat me to it.

[11t]

If you call his push and get sucked out on you go from a huge chip lead to being at 5xBB and could very well finish OOTM whereas you can steal at will from the short stacks.

Of course to qualify that, at a higher limit games (where I believe you play) I would call vs a maniac/super aggressive player.

I still think that folding JJ is +EV.

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]

One thing that's for sure is I think folding JJ to the allin is wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

That all depends on what you opponent would push with.

[mackthefork]

This is a good push, you just ran into a real hand, well played unlucky.

Regards Mack