Down to four and about to get blinded out

[Demana]

Final table of a 100 person tourney

Stacks:
UTG: 40K
Button: 25K
SB: 45K
BB (Hero): 11K

Blinds are 2500/5000 with 400 ante

Reads:
UTG: Loose, pushes postflop with any pair
Button: Has played only one hand (a pair of sixes) of the eight hands the final table has seen.
SB: TAG, will blind defend if he thinks it is a steal

Hero has Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Preflop: UTG folds, Button <font color="red">bets (T 12000)</font>, SB folds, Hero <font color="red">pushes all-in</font>
Pot: (T 9100)

<font color="green">Hero has 5000K left (meaning 4.25:1 odds to call), but still enough to post the small blind and antes, but by taking this pot, the button will be able to fold until Hero is all in on the next big blind.</font>

[billyjex]

I'm pushing with almost any cards here. Q8s is an easy push here IMO. There's too much money at stake and you have a decent hand four-handed.

[Roman]

how top heavy are the payouts? How aggro is the table? Barring any really wacky answers to those questions, I auto push here.

[Demana]

With the blinds already huge (the next bump was to 4000/8000 with a 1000 ante), the big stacks were agro and the short stacks were pushing with any decent hand.

The payouts were:

1st: $2400
2nd: $1600
3rd: $900
4th: $650

[JaBlue]

Thank god that you got Q8 when you had to push with any two and shove it in

[adanthar]

The important thing about having posted this hand is that you clearly don't get that you have to do this with 32o.

Now that you know, do you see why?

[Demana]

[ QUOTE ]
The important thing about having posted this hand is that you clearly don't get that you have to do this with 32o.

Now that you know, do you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]

No I don't and I would greatly appreciate it if someone would explain it to me because I think I made a similar mistake earlier in the tournament where I was the BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], a short stack went all-in, it was folded to me, and I folded when it was 2K to call with 10K in the pot.

[billyjex]

Someone can better elaborate on the mathematics, but you're getting 5 to 1 here; 95s is only something like a 60/40 dog to two overcards, Axo, etc. Even if you're against an overpair you're almost getting the odds to call.

[nortonmalc]

9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] has a 17.5% chance of winning against A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Your 2000 extra chips are only 16.7% of the pot, so your chance of winning in a dire situation is greater than your investment in the pot. This doesn't even take into account the fact that the short stack was probably desperate and therefore likely playing a much more marginal hand than pocket aces. Especially if he had the impression that you would fold to such a small bet. The only hand he could have that would not warrant a call would be pocket 9s, based strictly on pot odds, and the odds of him having exactly that hand are too small to be bothered with on this call.

[Demana]

Ok, this makes a lot more sense to me. I've heard people say that they *have* to call, and then turn over 35o and I wondered what they meant.

Thanks for the explanation!