Chip and a Chair to Chip leader - almost. AK push?

Shorty35 · #1 03-02-2005, 03:47 PM

$30 MTT on Party. 410 entries.

On the 20th hand of the tourney, my KK gets busted by a flsh draw and I am left with 10 chips. Miraculously, I come back, beat the bubble and the following hand comes up with about 30 players left.

I had played with the SB for some time; so I was certain that I was a coin flip at worst against him (i figured he would just call with a real monster). How do you guys feel about the push given my stack and that we were at move time? (It would have made me chip leader).

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1000 (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

SB (t9930)
Hero (t18598)
UTG (t34881)
UTG+1 (t15820)
MP1 (t10824)
MP2 (t970)
MP3 (t511)
CO (t2012)
Button (t8498)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
6 folds, Button raises to t4000, SB raises [t9930], Hero reraises [t18598], Button calls [t4498] t4000.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)

River:8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)

Results in white below: 
SB has Ad 4s (one pair, eights).
Hero has Ks Ah (one pair, eights).
Button has Jh Js (two pair, jacks and eights).
Outcome: Button wins t5500. 

post script. I ended in 28th when KK lost to AJ all in. Not the result I wanted, but still my best comeback ever.

IMRichB · #2 03-02-2005, 04:12 PM

Nice comeback from 10 chips!

I would fold preflop. You were confident in being a coin flip against the SB, but you had to know the button was going to call also, right? He's pot committed with 4,000 chips left and a pot size of 24,000. And AK against two players no longer looks so good.

Rich

Shorty35 · #3 03-02-2005, 04:19 PM

I put him on a wide range of hands given his stack and position. I figured that it was unlikely I was dominated by KK or AA, likely that he had an underpair or a big A.

I havent done the math, but I think I had odds with the underpair (given that I put the SB on a dominated hand or underpair) -- and I was in a great position if he also had Ax.

I would love to see how the math whizzes would break this down.

billyjex · #4 03-02-2005, 04:20 PM

I like a push here.

We know button is coming along, but you're getting good odds on a push and if you lose you're still going to have enough chips to play. If you win, you can be confident of a final table.

I can still see folding though, you will have enough chips to bully, but I like to take chances to build a big stack.

IMRichB · #5 03-02-2005, 04:26 PM

It's funny I didn't even look at the results when I first replied, but my fear was that one of them had an underpair and the other had Ax, thereby reducing your odds to less than a coin flip by taking away one of your outs. That said, I guess you're getting 2-1 pot odds where your odds of winning are at least slightly better than that, so on further thought maybe your push is a good move.
Rich

MLG · #6 03-02-2005, 04:35 PM

Pushing here is the right play by quite a wide margin. You got unlucky that the button actually had a hand and you couldnt outrun it.

slickpoppa · #7 03-02-2005, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
so I was certain that I was a coin flip at worst against him (i figured he would just call with a real monster)

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I think you had to push in this situation, be careful in assuming that people will always slowplay AA or KK.