Further analysis requested.

[Pot Luck]

Hello all -- thanks in advance for your feedback.

Weekly Single Table No Limit Home Tournament

5 Players Remain
Chip Leader 35000
2nd 23300
3rd 19000
HERO 13600
Short Stack 5100
BLINDS 500/1000 200 Ante

HERO is Big Blind

Short Stack - Under The Gun (Just got sucked out on last hand for 13000) Goes ALL-IN for 5100

2nd - FOLD
Chip Leader - CALLS 5100
3rd - FOLD
HERO - Big Blind for 1000 - Has 99

I have played 50 Tournaments with these guys so I have good read on them all. UTG short stack is the Tightest player in our group, but throws in the towel quick if he gets down short. I figure he is all in with an A or K. Chip Leader is loose. He loves to make loose calls against desperate ALL-IN players. Probably has overcards, middle suited connectors or worse.

I RE-RAISE ALL-IN for 8500 more.

Chip Leader CALLS.


UTG shows A5o
Chip Leader shows KQo
HERO shows 99 -- I am only a slight favorite (?)


Obviously I am looking at whether my play was logical or not, but I am most interested in the evaluation of the Chip Leaders call of my ALL-IN for 8500 more. I figure by the time he has to make his decision there is 25300 in the pot (Antes 1000 + UTG ALL-IN 5100 + Chip Leaders Call 5100 + Small Blind 500 + HEROs ALL-IN 13600). He needs 8500 to call. The pot odds are roughly 3 to 1. He has only over cards and has got to figure he is up against an A or a Pair. In either case he needs atleast a K or Q to improve. 5 Handed there are 10 cards dealt out leaving 42. He has 6 outs to improve. 42/6 the odds are 6 to 1 on him improving. (?) He is 6-to-1 to improve and the pot was only offering 3-to-1 ------> HIS CALL WAS INCORRECT?

RESULTS***** A King Flopped and 2 players are out. Last 3 in the money against a giant Chip Leader.


Chip Leader looks at me -- shrugs and says, "I was pot committed -- I had to call." ------> This was a stupid thing for him to say (5100 in the pot with 29900 left is not pot committed is it?) I smile and nod.


Break it down for me PLEASE.


Pot Luck

[ColdestCall]

Nevermind, just saw the payout was top three in the money - standard 5/3/2 breakdown?

Also, how fast do you raise the blinds, what is the next blind level, etc.

[Pot Luck]

50%
30%
20%

This night was only 10 players $200 Buy-In

$1000
$600
$400

[ColdestCall]

[ QUOTE ]
I am most interested in the evaluation of the Chip Leaders call of my ALL-IN for 8500 more. I figure by the time he has to make his decision there is 25300 in the pot (Antes 1000 + UTG ALL-IN 5100 + Chip Leaders Call 5100 + Small Blind 500 + HEROs ALL-IN 13600). He needs 8500 to call. The pot odds are roughly 3 to 1. He has only over cards and has got to figure he is up against an A or a Pair. In either case he needs atleast a K or Q to improve. 5 Handed there are 10 cards dealt out leaving 42. He has 6 outs to improve. 42/6 the odds are 6 to 1 on him improving. (?) He is 6-to-1 to improve and the pot was only offering 3-to-1 ------> HIS CALL WAS INCORRECT?
Pot Luck

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, outside of payout and blind structure considerations I already asked about, lets take a look at this. There are 10 cards dealt out, but big stack only know what 2 of them are. So there are 50 unseen cards, not 42. Of those 50 cards, 6 improve him and 44 do not. This DOES NOT mean that his odds of improving are 44/6, or 7.3 to 1, or however you were calculating it above, because he is seeing more than one card. In fact, since everyone is all-in, he is seeing five. He will make a pair on the flop around a third of the time, and a pair in five cards around half of the time. Which is also not terribly important in this situation. What is important here is how often he can expect to win with KQo against two opponents holding an underpair and an A/undercard respectively, and it turns out that he can expect to win around 33% of the time. Moreover, there are a number of combinations where he will lose to small stacks hand, but beat yours, which improve his odds further. Plus, he is the chip leader who will not be crippled by losing this hand, but will be in commanding position to win the tournament if he wins it. His call was correct.

[11t]

Okay you say you have a good read on these people then ask yourself a few questions.

Firstly, does the chip leader know that the short stack will go all in with any A or K and if he does what type of hands will he be calling with here.

Secondly, if he is solid then he probably thinks you are attempting to do exactly what you are doing which is tryiing to get it heads up vs the UTG pusher and he will call since you most likely have an under pair. However, if he is weak he is going to call with any two cards since he wants to win that massive pot.

I only make the play you just made with AA, KK, QQ, and AK. I think this is a terrible push because you should expect to get called here. If you had the chip leader out chipped or had any fold equity against him than this is an okay push but you do not and you took a huge gamble and lost.

Terrible push, decent call.

[swarm]

Sorry Pot Luck but to blame this on the Chip Leader is wrong, your the one that made the error.

First he is much better than 6/1 to improve.

First off you don't know what UTG pushed with, it could be a higher pair.

Second, the Chip Leaders call screams two overcards which you should know right then and there by entering the pot you are at best entering into a coin flip situation if the UTG is playing overcards or a lesser pair. You could be entering the pot already behind UTG and in a coin flip with the chip leader.

With his stack did you seriously think he wouldn't call? Especially you yourself said that he was loose with calling all-ins.

Instead of blaming the chip leader (who made the right decision results based or not) you need to look at your move. You misread the chip leader and didn't give him credit for a quality overcard hand that would at best put you at a coin flip at worst I put him on A10 which might as well be AK as far as you are concerned. Further more you have to look at where you are at in terms of the money. Does folding here kill your chances of making the money? No.

You should have folded and picked a better spot were you had a stronger advantage. Diving into a 3 way pot with 99 is not an ideal situation in my opinion.

[Bigwig]

This pair of 9's needs to hit the muck preflop.

[Pot Luck]

You are all correct. Thanks.