To Gamble on the Bubble or Not

Dionysiac · #1 02-28-2005, 11:06 AM

Hi,

Been lurking for a long while and thought it was about time I exposed some of my decisions for the critics.

This one was in a £10+1 (GBP) on William Hill

I was in 3rd of 4th and hoping that someone would self destruct before me. The blinds were 200/400 and I was in SB. The stacks before the blinds were as follows:

Table "STT1 380243 - 1" Seat 10 is the button.
Seat 3: HERO (760 in chips)
Seat 4: BB (540 in chips)
Seat 6: Player X (990 in chips)
Seat 10: Chip Lead (7710 in chips)

HERO: posts small blind 200
BB: posts big blind 400

----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to HERO [7h Qd]
Player X: folds
Chip Lead: folds

My thoughts at this stage are:
If I give him my SB he will have 740 to my 560 he can survive by folding, I cannot.

I knew he couldnt fold no matter what he had so I decided to take the gamble and push.

Thoughts please.

D

Scuba Chuck · #2 02-28-2005, 11:11 AM

FWIW, I think it is correct to push top 50% of hands here.

I hate these situations too.

Lottery Larry · #3 02-28-2005, 11:25 AM

Does the payout for 3rd place make up for losing 1st-2nd by limping and stalling?

I push here also- you're still in it if you lose and if you going to get any shot at the leader you have to take out the bottom two players yourself.
If you win, I'd push with a lot of hands as well to try to take out Mr 990/590 after the BB.

valenzuela · #4 02-28-2005, 11:30 AM

Good Push, you have some SNG sense( I had to be told to start pushing in this situations)

kamrann · #5 02-28-2005, 11:47 AM

Say you fold. If the chip leader has any brains he will then push UTG next hand, and the chances of you picking up a hand strong enough to call all-in in this scenario are about zero. Same for the other two, and if they do they will most probably be very strong and win anyway. So you then have 2 hands left to choose from, with no fold equity whatsoever, and even should you win, you are still not assured of a money finish. So I think you should push here with considerably more than top 50%. Top 80% at least, maybe even any two. It's a very extreme situation though and difficult to know really.