Identifying small edges

[IgorSmiles]

The subject of whether to take gambles as a small favorite has been kicked around a lot. But how about if we take a step backwards first. I'm sure I'm not the only one to call off a nice chunk of my money with A/Q expecting a race, only to see my opponent turn over pocket Ks. Or to push with 9s, putting my opponent on two overs only to run into 10s or Jacks. Folding as a favorite isnt a formula for winning, we all agree there. But to state the obvious, you never really know the other guy's cards until he turns them over, so you may think you are taking a slightly better than 50/50 gamble only to learn otherwise. So, how are you identifying these small edges both preflop and on the flop?

[sloth469]

Well first it involves putting the other guy on a range of hands. It is obviously an imperfect science, but gets easier as you go.

After you have your range, do you have an edge over that range? Act accordingly.

(note: You must be honest with yourself, do not get in the habbit of basing the range on what you can beat, it's a hard trap not to fall into.)

-sloth <----bust w/ AQs to AK all the time and rarely regrets his decision

[woodguy]

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how are you identifying these small edges both preflop and on the flop?


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Online I'd have to say the betting pattern of the villian, both pre-flop and post-flop.

Once you have seen how he is playing his hand you can put him on a range, decide how you stack up against it and go from there.

This line concerned me:
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call off a nice chunk of my money with A/Q expecting a race


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Usually you want to be the aggerssor in any hand. I have a hard time calling off a big chunck of my stack expecting a race if I'm getting less than 2-1, which it usually is because when AQ is in a race there are still 5 cards to come so I doubt I have bet to the point that I'm getting 2-1 preflop. (It happens, but usually when you really outstack your opponent, or vice versa, then its an easy call)

Igor, why don't you post some hands you had troubles with (even ones you folded), its much easier to disect it from there.

The guys here picked apart and re-built my game and it has done wonders for the bankroll.

Regards,
Woodguy

[IgorSmiles]

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I have a hard time calling off a big chunck of my stack expecting a race if I'm getting less than 2-1,

Igor, why don't you post some hands you had troubles with

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First off, 2-1 on a race is an easy call. I was talking in general terms but I can post a specific hand that I was in recently that partially inspired this post.

I have 2600, blinds are 100/200. I have A/Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in early pos. I raise 3X BB to 600. Villan has me covered and pushes from button. Folded to me. I figure this has to be a race. I dont figure him to push with As or Ks. Qs or A/K possibly. But most likely a race and my stack cant afford to pass up a race with these blinds. I call, he has Ks, I'm done.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I have 2600, blinds are 100/200. I have A/Q in early pos. I raise 3X BB to 600. Villan has me covered and pushes from button. Folded to me. I figure this has to be a race. I dont figure him to push with As or Ks. Qs or A/K possibly. But most likely a race and my stack cant afford to pass up a race with these blinds. I call, he has Ks, I'm done.


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I don't understand your range.

I take it you are including 77-JJ.

Did you have notes on the button saying he would come over the top with medium pairs?

Without notes that say the button will do this, I think your range is a little wide and tailored to your hand.

The most likely hands that push here, AK and QQ (if you think that AA and KK don't) dominate your holding.

I find that AA and KK will push there as you may like your hand a lot more PF than after seeing a flop and they want your chips in the middle if they can.

IMHO On this hand your range is too wide barring a read to the contrary.

You are getting 1.45-1, and are a 2.53-1 dog on the basic range of hands for his move (AA-QQ, AK), if you include medium pairs down to 77 you are about 1.6-1 dog, which makes it a lot closer, but still not great.

Given that you will still have 10BB's to work with you can find a better situation to get all your chips in with than *hoping* he's pushing with a medium pair.


Regards,
Woodguy

[Unparagoned]

Yep, he wants all your chips in and his move looks like a re-steal before you see him flip over KK, so he's going to convince more people to put in the chips without that A on the flop that has him beat. Now, I think the range of hands you are putting him on is not that bad really, you just shouldn't discount the AA or KK hands that you want to. I would say AA-99, AK, maybe AQs, it'll sorta depend on your image too. If he thinks you've been stealing alot, that range may well begin to broaden, but I'd say that AA-99 and AK, AQ is probably a reasonable range.

[woodguy]

Yeah my 1st range is pretty tight.

Your range yields that the OP is a 1.54-1 dog getting 1.45-1 for his chips. I still say this one is a fold barring a solid read.


Regards,
Woodguy