i get confused and dont know what to do

[stripsqueez]

$100+$9 - 4 runners - i post the BB of T300 and have T1150 left - UTG who has T780 limps - monster stack on the button folds - SB who has T570 left after posting folds - i look at 8h4h and decide check is a plan

flop is 3h 5h 7c - i check - UTG pushes

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[hansarnic]

[ QUOTE ]
$100+$9 - 4 runners - i post the BB of T300 and have T1150 left - UTG who has T780 limps - monster stack on the button folds - SB who has T570 left after posting folds - i look at 8h4h and decide check is a plan

flop is 3h 5h 7c - i check - UTG pushes

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[/ QUOTE ]


Well, the upside of calling & winning is pretty significant and you are very unlikely to be much worse than 50:50 here. Given stack sizes & position, calling & losing is not so bad that you should think about folding IMO.

(btw, I'm assuming it's 1150 after posting not before)

[Scuba Chuck]

IMO, villain is doing one of two things. One, he has AA. Two, he is doing a reverse stop-n-go. Thinking that he has a better chance of winning the blinds if he just limps and pushes post flop.

I really doubt he is doing two because he doesn't have position, so let's put him on AA.

He is a 57.6/42.4 favorite if he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
He is a 52.8/47.2 favorite if he doesn't

IMO, this decision is dependent on two things. Has monster stack been playing a lot of hands, or do you reasonably expect a high probability of him playing the next hand? Next, how probable do you think it is that SB will push next hand?

IMO, if the table has been tight, and you believe you have a significant expectation that the next hand will be folded around to you in the SB, then fold this hand. You will have FE against villain next hand to gain your chips back.

If you don't think it will be folded to you, then I think you have to play this hand.

Edit: You have 1150 left after posting. IMO, that makes this an easier fold.

[adanthar]

You're calling 480 into a pot of 1230. There is no possible way in the world to fold here because you're not even playing for third if you win this hand.

[hansarnic]

[ QUOTE ]

Edit: You have 1150 left after posting. IMO, that makes this an easier fold.

[/ QUOTE ]


How does having more chips makes it easier to pass up on a coin flip to make the money getting 2.5 to 1 odds?

Remember, by winning you are ITM with enough chips to have a pretty good lock on 2nd & some chance of 1st. The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that folding here is a crime.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no possible way in the world to fold here because you're not even playing for third if you win this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know, I never think of these problems that way. I like this line of thinking. I often think too much about avoiding 4th place (perhaps problem?).

[ QUOTE ]
You're calling 480 into a pot of 1230

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, great pot odds on a coinflip don't always matter in a tournament, but it certainly can add to making a good decision.

So, thought I'd do the ICM for this...

Fold = 21.7% of Equity Prize Pool
Call, win = 32.9% of Equity Prize Pool
Call, lose = 15.7% of Equity Prize Pool
Well, this is starting to look like a call already

I will use my assumptions above regarding villain having AA. And I'll assume he has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s.

Calling = (.576)(.329) + (.424)(.157)
Calling = 25.6% of the Equity Prize Pool

I stand corrected. This is a clear call, due to these numbers, and obviously, if villain is on a pure bluff, or doesn't have the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s, the $EV numbers are even significantly stronger.

Another Conclusion: $EV analysis concludes that if villain had enough chips to cover you, this is a fold. Any thoughts?

Side Note: Chickenhawk, whenver I get confused, I've begun to follow Gigabit's advice ~ "Whenver I get confused, I'm allin."

[tallasudude]

Yes you are correct, easy call.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, great pot odds on a coinflip don't always matter in a tournament

[/ QUOTE ]

Good pot odds can sometimes (rarely) be irrelevant. Great pot odds always matter (yeah yeah satellites folding AA I know stop please.)

[ QUOTE ]
Another Conclusion: $EV analysis concludes that if villain had enough chips to cover you, this is a fold. Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, yeah - you're now calling 1150 to win 1900 and if he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you're just short of a 3:2 dog, so of course the ICM says you fold.

He doesn't always, and sometimes he has nothing at all and your pairs are outs, so you call anyway. But you originally get there based on the pot odds.

[ilya]

Why did you check on the flop? I think you should put pressure on UTG with a push, seeing as there is another really short stack at the table. Sure, his limp was super-suspicious...but players make all sorts of wacky moves, even at the $100s I'd imagine. You can't be 100% certain that he has a big pair, and even if he does, he's not a big favorite. You're calling anyway, so give him a chance to click the fold button, even if it's by mistake.

[Algasm]

This is exactly what I was thinking. Push, you might not actually have any folding equity but I usually error on the side of aggression on the bubble.