Am missing a river value bet here?

[PokrLikeItsProse]

$0 or $100 max full ring NLHE online table, for reference.

I make a standard raise in middle position and I get min-raised by the big blind. On the flop, BB makes a half pot bet, which I flat call. BB check on the turn and river. It seems like BB almost always has AK or AQ in this spot and is never slowplaying AA or KK hoping for a check-raise even though the min-raise is allegedly a classic on-line tell for one of those hands.

If someone would play AK or AQ in this fashion and the board has low cards, how likely do you think s/he is to call a modest river bet? I would not bet the turn, because I have been check-raised there, but being checked to twice seems like a good sign here. I'd just like an estimation of how likely AK or AQ is to call me so I can figure out if it is a good idea to bet knowing that the few times a medium pocket pair acts this way, I will definitely get called and sometimes beat.

[tbach24]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Just post the hand, dude.

[kurto]

Are you asking regardless of what your cards are?

I think its easier to do this play if you gain some respect. Do you have anything? Its helps if you show a few wins first.

I always notice... If I have the buy-in, and I bet on a missed flop, I get callers galore. When I've doubled my buy-in and shown a lot of good winners, I can bluff a lot more.

In a vacuum... its impossible to answer your question.

[PokrLikeItsProse]

No specific hand. This is a common situation I find myself in. I just want to know how inclined someone with AK or AQ is to call a small bet on the river on a low board where I have them beat when the turn has been checked. People do it in limit all the time and I was curious if they do it in no limit as well.

[kurto]

"I just want to know how inclined someone with AK or AQ is to call a small bet on the river on a low board where I have them beat when the turn has been checked. People do it in limit all the time and I was curious if they do it in no limit as well." If its really a small bet, many opponents will often call. But beware... I've also seen it done as a slowplay/bet inducing move.

quick example... person raises with pocket 10s. Flop comes 3-6-10... preflop raiser bets. 1 caller. The person with pocket 10s now slowpays you. When the turn comes... he checks to you to see if you'll bet it. He wants to induce you to bet.

With that being said... poor players will often call with nothing but overcards.

(sometimes it works better to bet the river when they check it to you)

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
No specific hand. This is a common situation I find myself in. I just want to know how inclined someone with AK or AQ is to call a small bet on the river on a low board where I have them beat when the turn has been checked. People do it in limit all the time and I was curious if they do it in no limit as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, obviously you tailor your bet size to the hand you want to call you. if you bet $3 into a $20 pot on the end, you'll probably get called by AK high. but it's generally not worth it, unless you have a hand that can stand a c/r.